Wondering if thyssenkrupp is still a bargain after its big run, or if you are arriving just as the easy money has been made? This article is going to unpack what the current share price really implies.
The stock has surged 6.2% over the last week and 6.1% over the past month, but the real eye catcher is its 138.2% year to date gain and 218.6% return over the last year, which has clearly reset market expectations.
Investors have been reacting to a stream of restructuring headlines and portfolio moves, including progress on spinning off and partnering parts of its steel and industrial businesses, as well as fresh talk around sharpening its focus on higher margin operations. These developments have fed a narrative that management may finally unlock value that was long trapped in a sprawling conglomerate structure.
Even after that rally, thyssenkrupp only scores 3 out of 6 on our undervaluation checks. This suggests the story is more nuanced than a simple cheap or expensive label. Next, we will break down what traditional valuation approaches say about the stock today, before finishing with a more powerful way to think about valuation in the context of thyssenkrupp’s evolving narrative.
Approach 1: thyssenkrupp Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates what a company is worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today in € terms. For thyssenkrupp, the model starts from a last twelve month free cash flow of roughly €62.5 million negative, reflecting a business still in transition rather than a steady cash generator.
Analysts and extrapolations used in the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model see free cash flow improving to about €358 million by 2030, with intermediate years rising into the low €1.1 billion to €1.3 billion range before normalising. Beyond the explicit analyst horizon, Simply Wall St extends the trend with gradually moderating growth assumptions, which are then discounted back to today at an appropriate risk-adjusted rate.
On this basis, the DCF model produces an estimated intrinsic value of about €8.01 per share. Compared to the current share price, this suggests the stock is roughly 19.3% above that estimate, indicating that a significant amount of restructuring optimism may already be reflected in the valuation.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests thyssenkrupp may be overvalued by 19.3%. Discover 905 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
Story Continues
TKA Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
Approach 2: thyssenkrupp Price vs Sales
For companies like thyssenkrupp that are still working toward consistent profitability, the Price to Sales (P/S) ratio is often a more reliable yardstick than earnings based metrics. It focuses on how much investors are paying for each euro of revenue, which tends to be more stable during turnarounds. In general, higher growth and lower risk justify a higher normal or fair P/S multiple, while slower growth or elevated uncertainty call for a discount.
thyssenkrupp currently trades on a P/S ratio of about 0.18x, which is dramatically below the Metals and Mining industry average of around 1.85x and also well under the 0.58x peer group average. Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio framework goes a step further by estimating what multiple the market should pay, after adjusting for factors such as thyssenkrupp’s growth outlook, profitability profile, industry, market cap and risk characteristics.
On this basis, thyssenkrupp’s Fair Ratio comes out at roughly 0.38x, more than double the current P/S. That gap suggests the stock is pricing in a lot of pessimism relative to what its fundamentals and risk profile would normally warrant.
Result: UNDERVALUED
XTRA:TKA PS Ratio as at Dec 2025
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your thyssenkrupp Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you write the story behind the numbers by linking your view of a company’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a fair value and a clear buy or sell decision. You do this by comparing that Fair Value to today’s Price. All of this then updates dynamically as new news or earnings arrive. For example, one thyssenkrupp investor might build a bullish Narrative around Marine Systems growth, decarbonized steel and successful restructuring that supports a fair value near the high analyst target of €13.0. Another, more cautious investor might focus on restructuring risks, weak demand and cash flow pressure and anchor their Narrative closer to the low target of €6.3. Both perspectives coexist transparently on the platform so you can choose the story, and the valuation, that best fits your own expectations.
Do you think there’s more to the story for thyssenkrupp? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
XTRA:TKA Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include TKA.DE.
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