When the City Council approved a two-year budget plan last year, they were hoping voters would later approve a new $192 parcel tax to fund core city services. A coalition of city workers’ unions and community groups subsequently paid for a signature-gathering campaign to get the tax, Measure E, placed on the June 2 ballot for voters to decide.
But the response from Oakland voters appears to be: no thanks.
On Election Day, the first tally of ballots, about 37,000, shows 54% of voters against Measure E. (The measure requires a simple majority to pass.)
These numbers will change as thousands more ballots are counted in the coming days by the Alameda County Registrar of Voters. A complete flip, with the remaining ballots skewing so heavily in favor of Measure E that it passes, isn’t impossible — but it’s unlikely.
So with the parcel tax looking like it’s going down in flames, what now?
Mayor Barbara Lee and most of the City Council backed Measure E. At a recent press conference, Lee spoke against a backdrop of crumbling, ancient city vehicles to underscore the need for more money to pay for critical services. The tax would pay for more police officers, a police academy, homelessness services, illegal dumping cleanup and more. Cuts wouldn’t loom over the city’s workers.
Early votes indicate that this messaging didn’t land with lots of residents. Jim Ross, a political consultant who often works with unions, said some of the messaging about fire stations closing and other painful service cuts “might be played out.”
“If you get threatened enough and nothing bad happens, maybe you lose some credibility,” Ross told The Oaklandside. “You might need to start finding a new way to sell these taxes.”
Seth Olyer, head of Oakland’s firefighter union, said he’s hopeful that the tally will turn around once the registrar starts counting people who voted last-minute. He pointed out that over 30,000 people signed the initiative to put the tax on the ballot, and he’s spoken with hundreds of potential voters who want to support the fire department. But he acknowledged that the early results aren’t what he wanted.
“There are some large corporations and some wealthy folks who have put a lot of money into the ‘no’ side of Measure E,” Olyer told The Oaklandside.
Oakland’s unions poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into getting Measure E on the ballot. But in recent weeks, real estate companies have spent huge sums of money on an ad campaign against the measure.
Kiran Shenoy, director of government affairs at Bridge Association of Realtors, pointed out that his organization was the only local business group that opposed Measure Q in 2020, a similar parcel tax that voters ended up approving to fund parks, homelessness services, and water projects. Shenoy said his group opposed Measure Q at the time for similar reasons they opposed Measure E. The ballot measures lacked guardrails to ensure accountability in how public dollars were spent, he said.
Attack ads circulated to residents in recent weeks argued that Oakland leaders haven’t fulfilled spending requirements in three of the last four tax measures approved by voters. The claim that Oakland leaders have failed to be good stewards of tax dollars was echoed in the San Francisco Chronicle and East Bay Times, which both endorsed “no” on Measure E.
“I think Oaklanders are finally, maybe at a place where they don’t want to write any more checks for services not rendered,” Shenoy told The Oaklandside.
Gagan Biyani, the executive director of the advocacy group Empower Oakland, said that while it’s too early to predict what the outcome will be for the parcel tax, the initial results still mark a major turning point for Oakland, where residents have previously approved new taxes by significant margins.
“The fact that this is a nail-biter is kind of a crazy astonishing feat,” Biyani told The Oaklandside.
Biyani noted that Measure E was endorsed by virtually every elected Oakland leader. Endorsements also featured local political clubs, the Oakland Chamber of Commerce, and other civic groups with major influence.
“Residents want to trust their government,” Biyani said, adding that this is the conclusion he’s drawn from polling and other data. “Most of the city council and the mayor have high favorability. People want to believe in Oakland city politics. But in order for them to believe, they need to see actual changes in the way things are done.”
It’s unclear how a defeat for Measure E will affect Barbara Lee, who said last month that she would formally announce her campaign for reelection after June 2.
Trishala Vinnakota, an Oakland-based political consultant who previously worked on Loren Taylor’s mayoral campaign last year, told The Oaklandside that if Measure E fails, “Mayor Barbara Lee and the City Council will have to do the hard job of actually governing.”
“That means negotiating with our public sector unions, making budget tradeoffs, and balancing the city’s finances without once again asking Oakland residents — who already carry one of the highest tax burdens in California — to pay even more in property taxes,” Vinnakota said.
“Oakland voters are saying clearly: manage the money you already have before asking us for more,” she added.
Taylor made a similar point in a press release issued on Wednesday.
“A community this divided on whether to extend trust to its own government is a community demanding to be heard,” Taylor said. “We heard it. We hope City Hall did too.”
Pamela Drake, a member of the Wellstone Club, said that by potentially spiking Measure E, Lee’s opponents will force her to be the face of an unpopular austerity budget. Drake also expressed frustration with what she characterized as misinformation spreading through Oakland.
“There are people in Oakland, who I respected, who are falling for it, and it’s dangerous and so skewed,” Drake said.
Ross, the political consultant, waved off the idea that Measure E’s outcome will affect Lee’s chances of winning reelection. Ross said the mayor is popular with residents, and that people are eager for a stable period of governance after enduring two recall elections in 2024. And while Lee hasn’t formally announced her entry into the race, Ross observed that there are no serious credible challengers.
“It’s really late; we’re in June,” Ross said. “The ballots go out in three and a half months. It’s not a lot of time for a credible opponent to put together a campaign to beat her.”
However, Ross does believe a defeat for Measure E will potentially fracture the coalition Lee built with Oakland’s labor organizations.
“If Measure E doesn’t pass, there isn’t going to be any money for cost of living increases, and that’s going to become a real issue for her,” Ross said. “Is it an issue where she can lose reelection? No. But it creates another set of governing headaches for her.”
In response to an interview request, Lee told The Oaklandside in a statement, “As always, I trust our voters to make informed decisions for the future of Oakland to support the best solutions to keep Oakland on the move for our residents and families.”
“With only a fraction of the ballots counted, we will have to wait for the final results. But either way, our response remains the same, and that is to execute based on the will of the voters,” Lee added.
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