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Wondering whether Mercedes-Benz Group at €47.93 is priced for pessimism or opportunity? This article walks through what the current share price might be implying about the stock’s value.
The share price is down 7.2% over the past week, 4.4% over the past month, 22.6% year to date and 1.6% over the past year, which can change how investors think about both upside potential and risk.
Recent news has focused on how traditional automakers are positioning themselves as global competition, regulation and capital needs keep evolving. For Mercedes-Benz Group, that context helps explain why investors are paying closer attention to balance sheet strength, cash generation and resilience through cycles.
On Simply Wall St’s 6 point valuation check, Mercedes-Benz Group scores a perfect 6 out of 6. The next sections will walk through what different valuation methods say about the stock, while also pointing to an even broader way to think about value at the end of the article.
Find out why Mercedes-Benz Group’s -1.6% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
Approach 1: Mercedes-Benz Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting future cash flows and then discounting them back to today using a required return. It is essentially asking what those future euros are worth in today’s money.
For Mercedes-Benz Group, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about €7.7b. Analyst estimates and subsequent extrapolations suggest free cash flow of around €4.4b in 2026, rising to about €6.2b by 2035, all in €.
When those projected cash flows are discounted and added up, Simply Wall St’s model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of €68.09 per share. Compared with the current share price of €47.93, the DCF output implies the stock trades at roughly a 29.6% discount, which indicates undervaluation according to this specific model.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Mercedes-Benz Group is undervalued by 29.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 206 more high quality undervalued stocks.
MBG Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2026
Approach 2: Mercedes-Benz Group Price vs Earnings
For a profitable company like Mercedes-Benz Group, the P/E ratio is a useful way to relate what you pay for each share to the earnings that support it. Investors usually accept a higher or lower P/E depending on what they expect for future earnings growth and how much risk they see in those earnings.
Story Continues
Mercedes-Benz Group currently trades on a P/E of 9.08x. That sits below the Auto industry average of 15.76x and well below the peer group average of 39.29x, which suggests the stock is priced more cautiously than many listed competitors.
Simply Wall St also calculates a “Fair Ratio”, which is the P/E multiple it would expect for the stock after factoring in elements such as earnings growth characteristics, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks. Because it is tailored to the business rather than just broad group averages, this Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with industry or peer P/Es.
For Mercedes-Benz Group, the Fair Ratio is 12.21x versus the current 9.08x, which indicates that the shares are trading below that modelled fair level.
Result: UNDERVALUED
XTRA:MBG P/E Ratio as at Jun 2026
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Mercedes-Benz Group Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives take that next step by letting you attach a clear story about Mercedes-Benz Group to your own numbers, link that story to a forecast for revenue, earnings and margins, and then see a Fair Value that you can compare directly with the current price. All of this happens inside Simply Wall St’s Community page where millions of investors share their views. That could be a cautious case anchored around a Fair Value near €44.61, a middle ground view closer to about €60.96, or a more optimistic stance up toward €75.00. As news, earnings or new regulations emerge, these Narratives are refreshed so you can quickly judge whether, for your chosen story, the stock now looks above or below what you consider fair.
For Mercedes-Benz Group, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Mercedes-Benz Group Narratives:
🐂 Mercedes-Benz Group Bull Case
Fair value in this bullish narrative: €60.96 per share.
At the last close of €47.93, this narrative implies the stock trades about 21.4% below its fair value estimate.
Analyst revenue growth assumption in this scenario: 2.7% a year.
Analysts see a premium franchise that could benefit from expansion in electric vehicles, digital platforms and advanced in car technology, with those areas expected to support pricing power and recurring revenue.
Efficiency programs, supply chain work and sustainability efforts are framed as key levers for margins, cost resilience and the ability to adapt as industry conditions change.
The narrative still flags meaningful risks around China exposure, tariffs, high electrification spending and intense competitive pressure, so the fair value depends on those pressures being manageable.
🐻 Mercedes-Benz Group Bear Case
Fair value in this bearish narrative: €44.61 per share.
At the last close of €47.93, this narrative implies the stock trades about 7.4% above its fair value estimate.
Bear case revenue growth assumption: about 0.3% a year.
Bearish analysts focus on stricter emissions rules, rising R&D costs, changing mobility habits and fierce EV competition, especially from Chinese automakers, as factors that could weigh on margins and long term growth.
They highlight the risk that pricing pressure, potential U.S. regulatory proposals tied to Chinese ownership stakes and supply chain issues could limit earnings quality even if reported metrics move up.
While acknowledging efforts in electric models, digital services and cost efficiency, this camp sees market expectations as demanding a high future P/E, which may leave less room for disappointments.
If you want to see how your own view lines up with these, step through the full narratives, adjust the assumptions and sense check where you feel most comfortable on the risk and reward trade off for Mercedes-Benz Group using the See what the community is saying about Mercedes-Benz Group.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Mercedes-Benz Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
XTRA:MBG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include MBG.DE.
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