The word of the day is momentum. Right now, theBMW 3‑Serieshas plenty of it, with +56.8% Q2 growth as Lexus pauses to reset the ES for 2026.Last month, we reported that the Lexus ES had the BMW 3‑Series eating its dust in terms of 2025 calendar‑year sales volume, with the Lexus earning a more than 7,000‑unit lead over the 3‑Series for the year.
Lexus
These two machines compete in a rapidly changing playing field that’s evolving before our eyes, and the 2026 calendar year will shape up very differently for this pair of luxury sedans. That’s because the Lexus ES is stepping aside briefly, to the benefit of a BMW 3‑Series that’s currently on a bit of a hot streak – and planning a big generational shift of its own.
The 3‑Series Surges While The ES Steps Aside To Go Electric
BMW
The BMW 3‑Series and Lexus ES have spent decades as key offerings in one of the most symbolically important segments in the luxury automotive space: the compact and midsize executive sedan class. Over the last decade, each has undergone major redesigns, powertrain evolutions, and technological overhauls, all while laying down dependability and quality performance that’s easy to appreciate. More on that below.
As we reported in June, Lexus sold 39,926 ES sedans last year, while BMW sold 33,031 3‑Series units, meaning the ES outsold the 3‑Series by roughly 21%. Given the historical clout of the 3‑Series, this was a big win for Lexus. It came just ahead of the automaker’s launch of an all‑new, next‑generation Lexus ES, which comes online for the 2026 model year as a fully redesigned product offering a hybrid powertrain (ES 350h) and, for the first time, battery‑electric models (ES 350e and ES 500e).
BMW
This is a massive generational shift involving new platforms, new powertrains, and the complexities of engineering a single vehicle for both combustion and fully electric power – let alone the supply‑chain implications.
This major shift required Lexus to effectively pull the ES out of the segment, causing a collapse in sales triggered not by a loss of demand, but by inventory depletion as production on the previous, seventh‑generation model ceased and production of the new eighth‑generation ES was brought online.
Lexus
By the numbers, the ES’ sales have declined by around 99 percent, a textbook end‑of‑lifecycle wind‑down where production halts, dealer inventory dries up, and the new model starts rolling out. As the ES continues with its brief sabbatical, it promises a prompt return with a completely new product strategy.
BMW
In the middle of all of this, the BMW 3‑Series is enjoying some growing popularity. While the ES completes its transition, BMW’s passenger‑car lineup shows something pretty interesting: the 3‑Series is not only stable, it’s accelerating. Second‑quarter figures are up 57 percent over last year (from 6,725 sales in 2025 to 10,542 sales in 2026), with year‑to‑date sales up nearly a third from 2025 (14,157 to 18,731 sales).
The surge in 3‑Series popularity is particularly impressive given that sedan sales in general have been slow for years. Turns out, BMW’s sedan shoppers are also finding the 3‑Series to be the “sweet spot” in the lineup. Notably, most BMW sedans and coupes are down year-over-year, with the 2 Series, 4 Series, and 7 Series all posting double-digit declines. The 5 Series, 8 Series, and Z4 show modest growth, while the 3‑Series is up a considerable 57 percent.
BMW
By the numbers, that makes the 3‑Series BMW’s number‑one selling sedan, one of its fastest-growing models, and the number‑three top‑selling BMW right now behind the X3 and X5.
What remains to be seen is how sales will stack up between the 3‑Series and ES once sales of the latest Lexus gain momentum.But raw sales numbers only tell half the story — the real question is whether either brand has built the loyalty needed to hold its ground once the competition restarts.
Lexus Leads On Dependability, But BMW Just Ranked #1 For Consistency – Here’s The Difference
Lexus
When the sales numbers reset, the tiebreaker won’t be horsepower or price — it’ll be which brand shoppers trust to deliver a consistent experience year after year.
Shoppers in this segment expect dependability, consistent reliability, strong resale values, and brand prestige to back up their decision. Many shoppers in this pricing universe buy or lease cars for the shorter term, preferring to upgrade to the latest tech and engineering every few years. With that in mind, the experience they’re provided each time needs to be as friction‑free as possible.
BMW
Both the Lexus ES and BMW 3‑Series have long delivered these qualities. According to JD Power data and studies, Lexus dominates in long-term dependability studies, while the BMW 3‑Series tends to achieve lower overall dependability scores but more consistent performance over time.Looking at the five-year-best and five-year-worst JD Power Vehicle Dependability Study (VDS) scores reveals the specifics. In the past five years, some brands have suffered massive scoring swings, while others have barely budged.
Lexus
The smaller the swings, the more consistent the ownership experience. In this regard, Japanese brands are the most stable in the industry, delivering solid dependability year after year with minimal scoring variation. Brands like Toyota (38 points of variance), Lexus (18 points), Subaru (45 points), and Honda (29 points) largely avoid the massive 70+ point swings seen by American competitors like Lincoln (79 points) or Chrysler (84 points), and Korean competitors like Hyundai (74 points) or Genesis (69 points).
When it comes to European cars, things are split down the middle. Volkswagen (85 points of variation) and Volvo (81 points) are the most volatile, with Audi (43 points) and Mercedes-Benz (48 points) in the middle of the pack. None of these European brands rank in the top 10 for five-year scoring consistency. Audi takes 14th place, with Mercedes-Benz coming in 18th.
At the top of the charts based on that same metric is BMW.
To put that another way, BMW is the least volatile brand in the entire VDS study for the past five years, with just 14 points of variation between its highest score (198 PP100 in 2026) and its lowest score (184 PP100 in 2023).
Both Brands Are Going Electric At The Same Time — And That’s Where The Real Battle Begins
Lexus
What will the 3‑Series be up against? The redesigned 2026 ES represents a major leap forward for Lexus, and its first effort to electrify a long‑standing sedan nameplate at scale, which could reshape how luxury shoppers think about electrified midsize sedans in general. It’s all‑new, available as a fully electric sedan or gas‑electric hybrid, and introduces a broader electrified strategy that pushes the ES into territory the 3‑Series doesn’t yet occupy.
Lexus
Specifically, adding an all-electric variant to an existing nameplate is complex, though the ES’s new platform was developed to handle the task. For shoppers, gas hybrid or electric power are interchangeable without needing to switch to a different model or driving experience, and AWD can be easily added to either powertrain for those who need it, with the (relatively) simple addition of an additional rear electric motor.
BMW isn’t currently offering a full-hybrid or full-electric 3‑Series, though it does offer the model in a variety of high-performance variants designed for extreme performance. In this way, each model line occupies some territory the other doesn’t, and it’s the mainstream heart of the market where these two machines compete the most directly.
And compete they will. With hybrid and EV variants, a fresh platform, and a new pricing structure, the new ES will re‑enter the segment with force.
Meanwhile, BMW is readying anall-new generation 3‑Seriesfamily as well, with a similar approach.Production will start later this summer on both combustion and all‑electric 3‑Series models, further expanding the BMW shopper’s options in the segment for 2027.
BMW’s decision to launch combustion and EV versions side‑by‑side also reflects a shopper who is increasingly demanding more choice. Some prefer the familiarity of a turbocharged inline‑four or inline‑six, while others want the instant torque and quiet refinement of an EV, perhaps without switching to a new model line or vehicle style.
By offering both, BMW positions the next 3‑Series as a direct counter to the new ES lineup, ensuring that a competitive answer to Lexus is ready.
Momentum shifts quickly in this segment, and there is likely to be considerable back-and-forth between these two nameplates in the coming months and years as the rivalry resets.