e bet is that profits can rise sharply. BofA estimates Steel Europe averaged about 440 million euros of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) across 2023-2025, but sees a path to more than 1.5 billion euros via EU trade protections (a tariff rate quota system), restructuring, and exiting the Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann plant. If investors buy that “bridge,” BofA says the steel business could be worth roughly 4-5 billion euros in equity value, enough to change how the whole group is priced.
Why should I care?
For markets: BofA’s 4-5 billion euro steel valuation makes late September a pricing moment.
A partial IPO would force Steel Europe to be judged on its own financials, not blended into the rest of Thyssenkrupp, nudging the stock toward a sum-of-the-parts story.
That puts the spotlight on execution, not the listing headline. Investors are likely to watch for proof that Steel Europe can move from roughly 440 million euros of EBITDA toward BofA’s more-than-1.5-billion-euro target, and for progress on the steps behind it: the EU’s tariff rate quota, restructuring, and the HKM exit. The clearer those milestones look at the capital markets day, the more BofA’s 4-5 billion euro reference point can shape how much of Thyssenkrupp’s market value a carve-out could plausibly “explain.”