The newcomers, meanwhile, are losing speed. On Holding grew less than analysts had anticipated for the first time last quarter. Hoka’s same-store direct-to-consumer growth dropped to a more pedestrian 4.6 per cent last year. Piper Sandler analysts reckon second-quarter sales at privately held rival Brooks grew by only mid-single digits.
It is normal for start-ups with meteoric growth to slow eventually. But there are signs the incumbents may be starting to win back consumers. Across sporting goods, US shoppers increasingly prefer established sportswear brands, while the share that prefer challenger brands has fallen compared with last year, according to a consumer survey by RBC.
There can be a few winners: between 2018 and 2025, the global running market almost doubled. But its rate of expansion has slowed, from more than a tenth per year in 2022 to 8 per cent since, Deutsche Bank estimates. It may help On and Hoka that running shoes have the advantage of loyalty: once a runner finds a pair that works, they tend to stick with the brand. But the upstarts should beware: the giants of sportswear seem to have taken the competition in their stride.
This story originally appeared in The Financial Times © 2026