{"id":29939,"date":"2026-06-03T22:58:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T22:58:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/germany\/29939\/"},"modified":"2026-06-03T22:58:11","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T22:58:11","slug":"measure-e-looks-set-to-fail-what-does-that-mean-for-oakland-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/germany\/29939\/","title":{"rendered":"Measure E looks set to fail. What does that mean for Oakland politics?"},"content":{"rendered":"

When the City Council approved a two-year budget plan<\/a> last year, they were hoping voters would later approve a new $192 parcel tax to fund core city services. A coalition of city workers\u2019 unions and community groups subsequently paid for a signature-gathering campaign to get the tax, Measure E<\/a>, placed on the June 2 ballot for voters to decide.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But the response from Oakland voters appears to be: no thanks.\u00a0<\/p>\n

On Election Day, the first tally of ballots<\/a>, about 37,000, shows 54% of voters against Measure E. (The measure requires a simple majority to pass.)\u00a0<\/p>\n

These numbers will change as thousands more ballots are counted in the coming days by the Alameda County Registrar of Voters. A complete flip, with the remaining ballots skewing so heavily in favor of Measure E that it passes, isn\u2019t impossible \u2014 but it\u2019s unlikely.\u00a0<\/p>\n

So with the parcel tax looking like it\u2019s going down in flames, what now?<\/p>\n

Mayor Barbara Lee and most of the City Council backed Measure E. At a recent press conference<\/a>, Lee spoke against a backdrop of crumbling, ancient city vehicles to underscore the need for more money to pay for critical services. The tax would pay for more police officers, a police academy, homelessness services, illegal dumping cleanup and more. Cuts wouldn\u2019t loom over the city\u2019s workers.<\/p>\n

Early votes indicate that this messaging didn\u2019t land with lots of residents. Jim Ross, a political consultant who often works with unions, said some of the messaging about fire stations closing and other painful service cuts \u201cmight be played out.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you get threatened enough and nothing bad happens, maybe you lose some credibility,\u201d Ross told The Oaklandside. \u201cYou might need to start finding a new way to sell these taxes.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Seth Olyer, head of Oakland\u2019s firefighter union, said he\u2019s hopeful that the tally will turn around once the registrar starts counting people who voted last-minute. He pointed out that over 30,000 people signed the initiative to put the tax on the ballot, and he\u2019s spoken with hundreds of potential voters who want to support the fire department. But he acknowledged that the early results aren\u2019t what he wanted.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are some large corporations and some wealthy folks who have put a lot of money into the \u2018no\u2019 side of Measure E,\u201d Olyer told The Oaklandside.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Oakland\u2019s unions poured hundreds of thousands of dollars<\/a> into getting Measure E on the ballot. But in recent weeks, real estate companies have spent huge sums of money on an ad campaign against the measure.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Kiran Shenoy, director of government affairs at Bridge Association of Realtors, pointed out that his organization was the only local business group that opposed Measure Q<\/a> in 2020, a similar parcel tax that voters ended up approving to fund parks, homelessness services, and water projects. Shenoy said his group opposed Measure Q at the time for similar reasons they opposed Measure E. The ballot measures lacked guardrails to ensure accountability in how public dollars were spent, he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Attack ads circulated to residents in recent weeks argued that Oakland leaders haven\u2019t fulfilled spending requirements in three of the last four tax measures<\/a> approved by voters. The claim that Oakland leaders have failed to be good stewards of tax dollars was echoed in the San Francisco Chronicle<\/a> and East Bay Times<\/a>, which both endorsed \u201cno\u201d on Measure E.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think Oaklanders are finally, maybe at a place where they don\u2019t want to write any more checks for services not rendered,\u201d Shenoy told The Oaklandside.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gagan Biyani, the executive director of the advocacy group Empower Oakland, said that while it\u2019s too early to predict what the outcome will be for the parcel tax, the initial results still mark a major turning point for Oakland, where residents have previously approved new taxes by significant margins.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fact that this is a nail-biter is kind of a crazy astonishing feat,\u201d Biyani told The Oaklandside.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Biyani noted that Measure E was endorsed<\/a> by virtually every elected Oakland leader. Endorsements also featured local political clubs, the Oakland Chamber of Commerce, and other civic groups with major influence.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cResidents want to trust their government,\u201d Biyani said, adding that this is the conclusion he\u2019s drawn from polling and other data. \u201cMost of the city council and the mayor have high favorability. People want to believe in Oakland city politics. But in order for them to believe, they need to see actual changes in the way things are done.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s unclear how a defeat for Measure E will affect Barbara Lee, who said last month that she would formally announce her campaign for reelection after June 2.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trishala Vinnakota, an Oakland-based political consultant who previously worked on Loren Taylor\u2019s mayoral campaign last year, told The Oaklandside that if Measure E fails, \u201cMayor Barbara Lee and the City Council will have to do the hard job of actually governing.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThat means negotiating with our public sector unions, making budget tradeoffs, and balancing the city\u2019s finances without once again asking Oakland residents \u2014 who already carry one of the highest tax burdens in California \u2014 to pay even more in property taxes,\u201d Vinnakota said. <\/p>\n

\u201cOakland voters are saying clearly: manage the money you already have before asking us for more,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n

Taylor made a similar point in a press release issued on Wednesday.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cA community this divided on whether to extend trust to its own government is a community demanding to be heard,\u201d Taylor said. \u201cWe heard it. We hope City Hall did too.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pamela Drake, a member of the Wellstone Club, said that by potentially spiking Measure E, Lee\u2019s opponents will force her to be the face of an unpopular austerity budget. Drake also expressed frustration with what she characterized as misinformation spreading through Oakland.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are people in Oakland, who I respected, who are falling for it, and it\u2019s dangerous and so skewed,\u201d Drake said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ross, the political consultant, waved off the idea that Measure E\u2019s outcome will affect Lee\u2019s chances of winning reelection. Ross said the mayor is popular with residents, and that people are eager for a stable period of governance after enduring two recall elections in 2024. And while Lee hasn\u2019t formally announced her entry into the race, Ross observed that there are no serious credible challengers.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s really late; we\u2019re in June,\u201d Ross said. \u201cThe ballots go out in three and a half months. It\u2019s not a lot of time for a credible opponent to put together a campaign to beat her.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

However, Ross does believe a defeat for Measure E will potentially fracture the coalition Lee built with Oakland\u2019s labor organizations.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Measure E doesn\u2019t pass, there isn\u2019t going to be any money for cost of living increases, and that\u2019s going to become a real issue for her,\u201d Ross said. \u201cIs it an issue where she can lose reelection? No. But it creates another set of governing headaches for her.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

In response to an interview request, Lee told The Oaklandside in a statement, \u201cAs always, I trust our voters to make informed decisions for the future of Oakland to support the best solutions to keep Oakland on the move for our residents and families.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWith only a fraction of the ballots counted, we will have to wait for the final results. But either way, our response remains the same, and that is to execute based on the will of the voters,\u201d Lee added.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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