Golf’s final major begins Thursday from Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England. It feels like it was barely a moment ago we previewed The Masters. Some of my predictions were good!
Birkdale is a classic Open course, not overly long (7,156 yards), fairly generous fairways and bunkers all over the place. Throw in a little weather (wind, rain and maybe some cool temps) and the course will show it’s teeth.
This will be the 11th time the course has hosted the men’s version of this championship. The Women’s Open has been contested here as well. Jordan Speith won the Claret Jug back in 2017 while hitting the ball all over the place, his usual style.
Birkdale is very much a shotmaker’s course. The favorites for the week reflect that. The usual suspects are the betting favorites so we will give them the attention they deserve, current form notwithstanding. A few new names are getting some traction.
Odds courtesy of Caesar’s Sportsbook.
SOUTHPORT, ENGLAND – APRIL 27: A detailed view of the Claret Jug on the 18th green at Royal Birkdale on April 27, 2026 in Southport, England. (Photo by Kate McShane/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesScottie Scheffler +650 to win
Scheffler was the second betting favorite Monday. The sportsbooks may have taken a look at Rory McIlroy’s tough week (relatively speaking) at the Scottish Open and adjusted accordingly. More on Rory in a minute. Scottie’s week last week wasn’t so great either.
Scheffler may look upon this as a lost year if he doesn’t get this one. His game has been noticeably shaky. Just when he seems to be putting it together something goes haywire. Driver, putter, you name it. A missed cut last week doesn’t help either. He is still the best player in the world, however, so even as the favorite this is a good value bet. A top five finish (+160) is a good hedge against him not winning the championship.
AUGUSTA, GEORGIA – APRIL 12: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland reacts on the 18th green during the final round of the 2026 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 12, 2026 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by Hector Vivas/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesRory McIlroy +800 to win
McIlroy looked frustrated more often than not at the Scottish Open. A good final round landed him at T-7 but he was free wheeling it most of the weekend. Thursday’s opening round may tell the tale for Rory. Beware the bad round. McIlroy has a history of blowing his chances on any given day. Any round of 75 or worse could derail him. Imagine how many more majors he would have if some of those rounds were salvaged. Fairways and greens all week will have McIlroy at or near the top of the leaderboard when it’s over.
NEW DELHI, INDIA – OCTOBER 19: Tommy Fleetwood of England poses with the trophy following victory on day four of the DP World India Championship 2025 at Delhi Golf Club on October 19, 2025 in New Delhi, India. (Photo by Prakash Singh/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesTommy Fleetwood +1200 to win
It could finally be his time. He’s contended at majors for years now. He’s ready to win, without question. He thirsts for the Open. This golf course fits his game. I’d like to see him make putts when it counts. I know his track record at the Ryder Cup, he’s proven himself in that arena over and over again. Majors are a similar type of pressure. To be fair, he’s been beaten more than he’s beaten himself. At this level you can do everything right and still fall short. A top five play (+330) is the call.
STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN – JUNE 06: Robert MacIntyre of Scotland pictured during the G4D Tour prior to the Volvo Car Scandinavian Mixed at Ullna Golf & Country Club on June 06, 2023 in Sweden. (Photo by Matthew Lewis/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesRobert MacIntyre +3300 to win
The more I think about it the more I love this. Nice performance at the Scottish Open last week. The Scot is looking for a breakthrough this week. A dark horse among the favorites to be sure. He will need to be at his best mentally for 72 holes. Bobby Mac can fly off the handle with the best of them, not always a bad thing. He must not let his emotions take him away in a major. He is in good form coming into the week and has been driving the ball great. Birkdale is not as cruel as some of the other courses on the Open rotation which could take some of the pressure off of MacIntyre. If he’s hanging around the leaderboard this weekend I’d love to see him with a chance to win. He’s undervalued a little.
SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 08: Chris Gotterup of the United States celebrates with his caddie on the 18th green of the first playoff hole after winning the WM Phoenix Open 2026 at TPC Scottsdale on February 08, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesChris Gotterup +2200 to win
I was on the bandwagon early in the season. A couple of wins and momentum going into the Masters. He hasn’t had great results in the majors this year but he picked up his third win of the season a couple of weeks ago so the optimism returns. Gotterup is a big hitter with a deft touch around the greens and can overwhelm just about any golf course he steps foot on. Winning majors is as much a matter of experience as it is talent. He’s gaining that experience each time he tees it up. Is it too early to make him a favorite? Maybe. Him winning would not be an earthshaking upset. The guy has game and is fearless. Look for a top ten (+310) finish. With a little luck, Gotterup can be the last man standing.
Prediction: This championship is wide open. In addition to the list Jon Rahm, Colin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele will have something to say about who wins this tournament. I’m going with McIlroy to win over Fleetwood and a couple of surprise contenders.