Updated July 15, 2026, 6:45 p.m. ET
Who will get the weekend off? The 2026 Open Championship tees off on Thursday from Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England and the Golfweek team has identified a few players who may be heading home early after Friday. Here’s who might be on the wrong side of the line this weekend.
Follow along with all the action this week with Golfweek and USA TODAY Sports for a live leaderboard, golfer rankings and money list.
More: Golfweek experts reveal sleeper picks for The OpenThe Open Championship pick to miss the cutAdam Schupak: J.J. Spaun
There’s been a lot of chatter about Bryson DeChambeau potentially missing all four cuts at the majors, but you know who else could achieve this dubious distinction? Spaun, who has had a mixed bag of nuts type season. It includes a win and some other top 10s but he hasn’t made a weekend yet at the majors and I’m predicting that won’t change this week at Birkdale.
Need a news break? Check out the all new PLAY hub with puzzles, games and more!Cameron Jourdan: Jordan Spieth (+140)
The return to Birkdale is not going to go as strongly as the first time for Spieth, who admitted he hasn’t had the results he has wanted this season compared to the way he feels he has been playing. Recently, it has been a mixed bag of results. As much as I’d love to see him compete this week and this may be a stretch for the MC, but we’re going with it.
Todd Kelly: Jon Rahm (+300)
Bryson DeChambeau could be a popular pick here, but let’s go with a different LIV golfer, Jon Rahm, who also missed the weekend at the U.S. Open.
Nick Stavas: Ludvig Aberg (+230)
There are few things I enjoy more than watching Ludvig Aberg play golf, but it hasn’t been too joyous lately. I picked the Swede to win the Scottish Open last week and he didn’t even make the weekend. He hasn’t finished better than T-17 since early May. I know he has the stuff to be a star on Tour for a long time, but he seems to be in a bit of a slump right now.
David Dusek: Aaron Rai (+200)
Great guy, popular winner at Aronimink, but the English crowd will add more pressure. The hangover could continue.
Jason Lusk: Bryson DeChambeau
It will be 0-for-4 this season for LIV’s big hitter, who hasn’t played enough events to be anywhere near major championship form. A baked-out Birkdale with all kinds of funky, running bounces won’t help his cause as his drives will likely run and run and run until they bounce into something nasty.
Tim Schmitt: Tommy Fleetwood (+400)
Every time the stars seem to align for Fleetwood to make a big splash, something gets in the way. This feels like one of those times.
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