Below, bettors can find betting predictions for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
The first playoff event sees Scottie Scheffler (+450) arrive as the favorite based on golf odds from BetMGM. He’s followed on the board by Rory McIlroy (+1200).
After McIlroy, oddsmakers price eight players between +1800 and +2500. Included in the group are Sam Burns (+2000), Collin Morikawa (+2500) and Cameron Young (+2200).
Expert Golf Picks for the FedEx St. Jude Championship
Cameron Young (+2200)
Young recorded aggressively strong ball-striking metrics last week at Sedgefield CC. The issue? He couldn’t putt to save his life, resulting in a T-61 finish.
His +1.38 SG: APP measure actually bested winner Michael Brennan’s output for the week. At +1.93 SG: BS, he ranked sixth in the field.
Young has now gained over +1.9 SG: BS in three straight events. He also owns a fifth-place finish last year to pair with an elite ball-striking performance in 2022 at TPC Southwind.
Perhaps most importantly, Young won the PLAYERS at TPC Sawgrass earlier this year. Sawgrass offers the strongest correlation to TPC Southwind of any course on tour.
In March, Young ranked third in SG: BS and third in SG: APP. He ranked ninth in putting for the week as well.
If he can reverse the highest-variance metric from last week and continue his ball-striking record, I predict Young owns a better chance than these odds imply.
Collin Morikawa (+2500)
In theory, Southwind should suit Morikawa’s game incredibly well. Accuracy off the tee plus spike approach potential offers an exact description for the two-time major winner.
Morikawa recorded his best finish at Southwind in 2022 (T-5th). While he hasn’t missed the cut in any of his last three Memphis visits, he failed to crack the top-20 in each of his last two.
Still, last year’s edition saw Morikawa rank ninth in ball-striking and sixth on approach. A lackluster putting week resigned him to a T-22nd in the first playoff event.
He enters the 2026 edition riding outstanding approach numbers. Morikawa gained at least +1.2 SG: APP in two straight, including a +1.73 output at TPC River Highlands.
Over his last eight rounds, Morikawa spiked to 2+ SG: APP three times. Over the last 12 rounds, he cleared that benchmark four times.
With four top-five finishes to his name already this year, Morikawa offers a strong fit for Southwind.
Viktor Hovland (+3000)
The Norwegian offers boom-or-bust candidacy based on recent performances. Given his course history at Southwind, I’m inclined to believe he spikes this week.
Hovland finished as the runner-up to Hideki Matsuyama in 2024. It qualifies as one of three top-20 finishes in his last four visits to TPC Southwind.
After winning the Travelers last month, Hovland showed radical improvement with his irons. A hot putter drove his success at TPC River Highlands before he showed ball-striking upticks.
Hovland gained +1.03 SG: APP at the Scottish Open before hitting +0.86 at the Open Championship. Over six rounds, he spiked to +1.4 SG: APP or better three times.
Despite losing the plot off the tee at the Open, Hovland showed consistency beforehand. He gained off the tee in eight straight rounds, averaging +0.94 SG: OTT.
Those factors lead me to predict Hovland contends for the second time in three years at Southwind.
Sam Burns (+2000)
Burns is finding form at the right time. Over his last five events, he finished 20th or better in all five and fifth or better in three of those five.
Most importantly for Southwind, Burns recorded strong approach numbers that are climbing upward lately.
Over his last 24 rounds, Burns posted a +1.06 SG: APP average. That figure rises to +1.13 over the last 16 and +1.21 over his last eight measured rounds.
Since the Memorial, he’s shown strong spike potential as well. Over the last 20 rounds, he cleared +2 SG: APP five times.
His ball-striking record offers an extremely high floor. He cleared +1.6 SG: BS in four of his previous five events and +1.65 in three straight starts.
The Southwind record offers further optimism for Burns to end a winless drought. He finished T-5th here in 2024 and T-2nd in 2021 before the event became the first event of the playoffs.
Given those factors, I predict Burns offers bettors a high floor at Southwind.