The top-70 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings are set for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the opening event of the PGA Tour’s season-long playoffs. Set in the rolling countryside just southeast of Memphis, TPC Southwind will host a playoff event for the fifth consecutive year after previously serving as a regular Tour stop for more than three decades.
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TPC Southwind is infamous for its “water balls” and has historically rewarded some of the best ball-strikers in the world. Recent winners include Hideki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Abraham Ancer and two-time champion Daniel Berger, who withdrew earlier this week. Last year’s winner, Justin Rose, also arrived in strong ball-striking form, gaining 9.4 strokes ball striking across his two starts leading into the week. The course also tends to favor players with experience and comfort on Bermudagrass, particularly with firm greens and penal rough becoming more difficult to manage in the heat and humidity of the American South.
There is no cut this week, but the field will be reduced considerably from here, with only the top 50 in the standings advancing to next week’s BMW Championship before the top 30 move on to the Tour Championship in Atlanta. With a $20 million purse and 750 FedEx Cup points going to the winner, there is still plenty at stake, particularly for those entering the week near or outside the top 50.
The field is led by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who enters the postseason atop the FedExCup standings after another dominant season. Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Wyndham Clark, Chris Gotterup, Collin Morikawa, Si Woo Kim, Sam Burns, Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg round out the top 10 entering Memphis. Rory McIlroy is also back at TPC Southwind after skipping this event last season, while defending champion Justin Rose returns after defeating J.J. Spaun in a playoff here a year ago.
Here are my favorite plays and fades in each price range for DraftKings contests for the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship
$9,000+ range
Play: Collin Morikawa, $9,300
At a course where ball-striking accounts for one of the highest percentages of success on tour, Morikawa is an ideal fit in this salary range. Over the past six months, he ranks fifth in the field in combined strokes gained off the tee and on approach. His improved putting raises the ceiling even further, as he has gained at least 2.5 strokes on the greens in each of his past five starts. Morikawa also owns an excellent record at TPC Southwind, ranking seventh in this field in SG/total at the course since 2016. With every part of his game trending in the right direction, he is my favorite play on the board. That might turn some heads given his injuries this year, but we have enough of a sample of him playing to a high level.
Play: Hideki Matsuyama, $9,000
Few players arrive in Memphis with better recent form than Matsuyama. He has recorded four consecutive top-15 finishes, beginning with a T-14 at the Open Championship before adding a T-3 at the 3M Open, a T-5 at the Rocket Classic and a T-7 at last week’s Wyndham Championship. His driving accuracy has improved considerably, helping him gain strokes off the tee in five straight starts. He has also shown more upside with the putter, gaining at least two strokes on the greens in three of his past four events. Matsuyama now returns to one of his best venues, where he won in 2024 and finished runner-up in 2021.
Fade: Rory McIlroy, $11,500
McIlroy is difficult to evaluate entering the opening round of the FedEx Cup playoffs. He was widely expected to skip this event and has appeared far more invested in majors and signature events than in regular tour stops. He has played only three times over the past two months, producing just one finish inside the top 30. His recent results at TPC Southwind have also been inconsistent, with a T-68, a T-3 and a missed cut in his past three appearances. Most concerning is his performance on these relatively straightforward Bermuda greens, where he has lost an average of 0.37 strokes putting across 22 career rounds.
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$8,000+ range
Play: Russell Henley, $8,600
Henley remains underpriced for both his consistency and fit at TPC Southwind. Finding fairways is essential to creating scoring opportunities here, and he remains one of the most accurate drivers in the world. Per the Rabbit Hole, among players priced in the $8,000 range, Henley has produced both the highest floor and ceiling on courses featuring Bermuda rough and greens over the past five years. He has also recorded 10 top-20 finishes this season, giving him one of the strongest combinations of safety and upside in this salary range.
Russell Henley has the highest floor and ceiling on Bermuda grass courses, while Chris Gotterup has one of the lowest.
Fade: Chris Gotterup, $8,900
It’s difficult to find reasons to fade anyone in this range. But the New Jersey native hasn’t played his best on Bermudagrass courses, only gaining strokes in 55 percent of his rounds on that surface. He also enters the week following a missed cut at the Rocket Classic and finished T-54 in his TPC Southwind debut last year.
Read The Line’s Joe Idone and John Haslbauer explain why they love Aaron Rai at the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship:
Watch Read The Line”s full betting breakdown of the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship here.
$7,000+ range
Play: Tom Kim, $7,900
Kim has elevated his game over the past two months, reasserting himself as a weekly threat to contend. His last six starts include a victory at the Scottish Open, a solo third at the U.S. Open and a T-5 at last week’s Wyndham Championship. That recent production gives him three top-five finishes during the stretch and makes his current salary particularly appealing.
His game also matches the demands of TPC Southwind. Kim’s accuracy should help him manage the narrow fairways and water hazards, while his iron play provides the clearest reason for optimism. Over the past six months, he leads this field in SG/approach at 0.99 per round.
$6,000+ range
Play: Aaron Rai, $6,800
Rai brings an ideal combination of safety and upside at a salary that does not reflect his current level of play. He has recorded seven top-30 finishes in his past 10 starts, highlighted by his PGA Championship victory in May and arrives in Memphis ranked 19th in the world. Despite that résumé, he remains priced well below what would normally be expected from a reigning major champion.
His controlled style is particularly valuable at TPC Southwind, where avoiding the rough and water is essential. Rai ranks second in the field in driving accuracy and inside the top 20 in approach play, allowing him to create scoring chances without bringing unnecessary trouble into play. That skill set has already produced four top-30 finishes in six appearances here, including a T-16 and T-22 over the past two years.
Ron Klos (@PGASplits101 on X) is a PGA Tour data analyst for Betsperts Golf.