Aug. 17, 2026, 11:33 p.m. ET

There are just 50 players left in contention for the FedExCup after 20 players were eliminated last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. The top 30 finishers in the 2026 BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri, will advance to next week’s Tour Championship. This is the first time the PGA Tour has been back to Bellerive since the 2018 PGA Championship, challenging players with major-like conditions on this world-class course.

Below, we look at BMW Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions before the first round begins Thursday.

Following his dominant 8-shot win Sunday in Memphis, Tennessee, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+250) is a heavy favorite to win again this week. However, it’s Sam Burns (+1400), not Rory McIlroy (+1600), who has the second-best odds to win behind Scheffler. Other notable contenders include Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood and Xander Schauffele, all at +1800. Scheffler is the defending champion at the BMW Championship, though it was played at a different course last year (Caves Valley in Owings, Maryland).

Bellerive Country Club is another par-70 course, but it plays long at 7,448 yards. It features large, firm greens and generous fairways, but the rough is deep and penalizing, forcing players to keep it in the fairway. The winning score at Bellerive in 2018 at the PGA Championship was 16-under-par, but that was on a rain-soaked course that played much easier than anticipated.

Watch the PGA Tour on Fubo!BMW Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 11:25 p.m. ET.

Sam Burns (+1400)

Burns started the final round Sunday just 2 shots back of Scheffler, but the World No. 1 ran away with it thanks to a stellar final-round 66. Burns was very much in contention up to that point, though, as he has been just about every week he’s teed it up in the last 3 months. He’s finished third in his last 2 starts, also coming in second at the U.S. Open and fourth at the Memorial Tournament. Ranked first in SG: approach over the last 3 months, it’s easy to like Burns’ chances of capturing that elusive win this week.

Tommy Fleetwood (+1800)

Fleetwood has been on fire since his missed cut at the PGA Championship in May, finishing 14th or better in 7 straight starts. Bellerive is a course that rewards strong iron play, which Fleetwood possesses, even if he hasn’t quite been as sharp as usual on his approach shots in the last 3 months (22nd in SG: approach). He does rank second in SG: tee-to-green over that span, though.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)

Matsuyama is always great around the green and his iron play is above-average, but he needs to keep the ball in the fairway. He gained 1.01 strokes off the tee last week, which is encouraging, and if he can have a similar performance this week, he should have enough quality looks with his irons to get in contention.

BMW Championship picks – ContendersViktor Hovland (+2800)

Hovland was squarely in the mix after 2 rounds last week but he shot 72-72 on the weekend behind some poor ball striking. He didn’t drive it particularly well and the drop-off in his iron play was surprising, but he has a chance to bounce back this week at Bellerive, where his iron play will be rewarded. Even after going 4-over on the weekend, he still finished T-19 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Collin Morikawa (+3300)

Morikawa wins with his irons, not his short game or driver. With generous fairways and big greens, his struggles in both of those areas will be minimized, emphasizing his approach play. That’s good news for him after limping to a T-52 last week.

BMW Championship picks – Long shotsJustin Rose (+6600)

Rose is 1 of just 17 players who teed it up at Bellerive in the 2018 PGA Championship, finishing T-19 that week. He’s now retreated to “long shot” territory at +6600, but there are signs of promise. He’s ninth in the field in SG: approach in the last 3 months, and his inaccurate driver will be less penalizing this week with the wide fairways. Plus, his course history could come in handy.

Alex Fitzpatrick (+10000)

Continuing to focus on strong iron players, Fitzpatrick is 10th in SG: approach but 48th in putting out of 50 players in the field over the last 3 months. With so few players having experience at Bellerive, Fitzpatrick won’t be at much of a disadvantage this week.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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