Aug. 18, 2026, 11:34 a.m. ET

The 2026 BMW Championship marks the second round of the FedExCup Playoffs, featuring the top 50 players in the year-long standings. Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Missouri, is hosting a PGA Tour event for the first time since the 2018 PGA Championship, giving players a major championship-like test. Below, we search for the best value prop bets for the BMW Championship and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions before the first round tees off Thursday.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is seeking not only his second win in as many weeks, but also back-to-back titles at the BMW Championship. He’s the defending champion and is coming off an 8-shot victory at the FedEx St. Jude Championship Sunday. He enters the week as the overwhelming favorite at +250. Sam Burns (+1400) and Rory McIlroy (+1600) are also among the top contenders.

Bellerive Country Club is 7,448 yards long, but it’s just a par 70 with 2 par-5s and 4-par 3s. That limits the scoring opportunities on this difficult track. The winning score was 16-under in 2018 when the PGA Championship was played here, but the course was soft and rain-soaked, making it more scoreable.

Watch the PGA Tour on Fubo!BMW Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:19 a.m. ET.

Sam Burns (+320)

Burns is playing exceptionally well right now, with 4 top-5 finishes since the Memorial Tournament in June. And now he heads to a course that rewards iron play, which is where he’s excelled all season. He’s chasing that elusive first victory of the season after so many close calls.

Tommy Fleetwood (+333)

Fleetwood is another outstanding iron player, which is why he’s a good fit for Bellerive. He doesn’t have the distance off the tee that some other players do, but he makes up for it with quality approaches that give him great looks for birdie.

BMW Championship: Best outright winnersBMW Championship – Top-10 picksHideki Matsuyama (+170)

Matsuyama is riding a hot streak of 4 straight top-10 finishes into Bellerive, using excellent approach play and improved performance off the tee last week at TPC Southwind. In a field of just 50, his chances of coming in the top 10 again are strong.

Viktor Hovland (+190)

Hovland’s ball-striking fell apart on the weekend after getting in contention at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, but he should bounce back this week. He’s too great an iron player not to get back into the mix again, and with bigger greens, he won’t have to chip and pitch as much as he would at a course with smaller surfaces.

Collin Morikawa (+230)

Sticking with the theme of picking excellent approach players, Morikawa fits that mold. And like Hovland, his short game won’t be as critical this week at Bellerive, where the greens are large.

BMW Championship – Top-20 picksJustin Rose (+130)

Rose tied for 19th at Bellerive in the 2018 PGA Championship, so he has some course familiarity. His ball striking has been great over the last 3 months, ranking ninth in SG: approach among players in this week’s field. It’s his short game that has held him back.

Gary Woodland (+150)

Woodland is driving it well, ranking seventh in SG: off the tee in the last 3 months, but his approach play has lagged behind. If he can get his irons going, with his length off the tee and these wide fairways, he’ll set up a lot of birdie chances.

Alex Fitzpatrick (+190)

Fitzpatrick is 14th in SG: tee-to-green in the last 3 months, showing just how well he’s hitting the ball right now. He’s just struggling to make putts. If the putter heats up, he could contend in this limited field.

BMW Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Xander Schauffele (-105) vs. Rory McIlroy (-118)

McIlroy is not in a great place right now after finishing 66th out of 69 players last week. He’s also expressed a lack of interest in the playoffs, so he may not be fully focused right now. Take Schauffele, who should not be an underdog to McIlroy head-to-head.

Tommy Fleetwood (-105) vs. Ludvig Aberg (-118)

Fleetwood’s approach play has been surprisingly lackluster in recent months but he’s putting well. Assuming his irons come around, he should have a good week, while Aberg can’t get much to drop on the greens as of late.

BMW Championship – Top AmericanSam Burns (+1100)

He tried to chase down Scheffler last week but came up just short. Maybe he’ll get it done this week, riding the momentum he’s built over the last 2 months.

BMW Championship – Top Brit and IrishTommy Fleetwood (+275)

McIlroy is the slight favorite at +230 but Fleetwood offers a higher floor than the Northern Irishman. It’s a strong field of British and Irish players but Fleetwood is as steady as anyone right now.

BMW Championship – First-round leaderHideki Matsuyama (+2800)

Matsuyama has been hot lately, finishing in the top 10 in 4 straight tournaments. He enters the week ranked eighth on the PGA Tour in first-round scoring average (68.9), too, so he’s started off well most weeks this season.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Golfweek:

Follow @camdasilva on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.