Only 50 players left standing on the PGA Tour are headed to St. Louis, where the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs awaits as players descend on Bellerive Country Club for another high-stakes test. While Memphis asked players to play under control and find fairways, this golf course looks to emphasize power and should give an advantage to those with a little extra horsepower off the tee.

Since Bellerive last hosted the PGA Championship in 2018, they have lengthened six holes, stretching the par-70 layout to 7,448 yards. That’s a long course, and while the most correlated stat to success is always approach play, I am using carry distance as a way to separate the favorites. The rough is set to be thick but manageable, which opens up the opportunity to deploy a bomb-and-gauge strategy.

The entire field is also a bit more on edge headed into this week after being decimated by Scottie Scheffler in Memphis by eight shots. The boogeyman is back, and rest assured, he’s the most intimidating player on the planet when he has his A-game. The bigger storyline is the top-30 cutline after this week. Just over half the field will leave St. Louis with a ticket to East Lake and the Tour Championship.

Here are my top-10 contenders to win the 2026 BMW Championship.

10. Wyndham Clark

There is an enormous gap between the Wyndham Clark that we saw at the beginning of the season and the one we are watching now. He won his second U.S. Open at Shinnecock in June, owns five top-five finishes across his last 10 starts, and just added another T-5 in Memphis after closing with 68.

We know that Clark possesses plenty of speed and loves golf courses where aggressive driving is rewarded. He has demonstrated that his ceiling rises when in proper form, and the test this week should fit his eye.

Read The Line’s Joe Idone and John Haslbauer make the case for Viktor Hovland at the 2026 BMW Championship:

9. Ludvig Aberg

He’s starting to look like Ludvig Aberg again. A quiet T-7 last week in Memphis included rounds of 65 and 67 providing late-season optimism. Now he moves onto a golf course that should allow his elite driving ability to become a much larger part of the conversation.

The extra 10-15 yards off the tee that he gains will compound over 72 holes and leave him with much more manageable approach distances. His baseline raises on courses like Bellerive, so he could be a sneaky pick to win the BMW Championship.

8. Matt Fitzpatrick

What he lacks in pure power, Matt Fitzpatrick more than makes up for with elite approach play. He leads the field in strokes gained/approach and from a ball-striking perspective, he aligns perfectly with what I expect from Bellerive.

He’s currently second in the FedEx Cup standings, owns three victories this season and added another steady T-12 in Memphis. Nothing about his summer feels accidental anymore. This is a player who has proven to be a contender every week, no matter the golf course.

7. Viktor Hovland

Even though the host venue rotates every year, there is something about the way that the BMW Championship sets up their golf courses that fits the eye of Viktor Hovland. He found something late in the season with his iron play that has kickstarted his success and allowed him to capture another PGA Tour victory at the Travelers Championship.

A T-32 in Memphis isn’t going to generate much hype coming into the week. I’m OK with that. Hovland’s game makes considerably more sense to me at Bellerive, where the premium shifts away from simply finding fairways and toward surviving long approach after long approach. His skills will be properly rewarded.

6. Tommy Fleetwood

There is always the temptation to overlook Tommy Fleetwood based on win equity, but we’re talking about a short field and the playoffs! Fleetwood arrives playing some of the most consistent golf of anyone on Tour. His T-7 in Memphis last week was his eighth top-10 of the season.

His game is so well-rounded that you cannot write him off anywhere. The harder the course plays, typically the better for Fleetwood. He answered the big question we all wondered in East Lake last year. Now can he do it in a field of 50? I think there is reason to trust backing him in St. Louis.

5. Xander Schauffele

This season has not exactly produced fireworks for Team Schauffele. But there is reason to believe in a strong finish after consecutive great results from Xander heading into this week. He has always been one of those players who can quietly check every box without necessarily leading the tour in any one category.

He’s one of the best in the field in par-4 scoring and long iron approach proximity, two highly sought-after traits at Bellerive. The win has not arrived in 2026 … yet. Expect Schauffele to be in the mix.

4. Rory McIlroy

What happened in Memphis was a tough look. Rory McIlroy looked completely out of sync and under-prepared. McIlroy finished 66th out of 69 players, 25 shots behind Scheffler, and openly admitted afterward that he felt lost with his swing. It was ugly. There really isn’t another way to frame it.

This is a new week. If I could build a prototype player specially for Bellerive, they would look a lot like McIlroy. I’m respecting the warning signs he showed of potentially being uncommitted, making him No. 4 in my rankings, but if things suddenly kick start into gear then Rory can outrace everyone in the field.

3. Sam Burns

At some point, Sam Burns has to win one of these things again. Only Scottie Scheffler has played better golf over the past three months, and Burns has been in contention week after week since coming painfully close to victory at the U.S. Open.

Taking into account the incredible form and considering the course fit, he should be on everyone’s short list. Burns has been remarkably steady from tee-to-green and possesses that type of putting acumen that will soon ultimately push him across the finish line to victory. That might just happen this week.

2. Cameron Young

Outside of the obvious player at No. 1, there is not a player in the field who makes more statistical sense at Bellerive than Cameron Young. He’s got all the tools, which includes averaging 317 yards off the tee, which will prove to be a massive head start on the golf course.

We’re talking about a player who has already won The Players and the Cadillac Championship this season. He’s burst down the door and now understands exactly what it takes to secure a trophy. I can’t find a better course fit than Cam Young, and I fully expect him to make a charge and potentially cement his case for PGA Tour Player of the Year with another win.

1. Scottie Scheffler

Last week was a not-so-gentle reminder: When Scottie Scheffler is holing putts, nobody stands a chance. Unsurprisingly, he checks all the boxes for Bellerive. The question we have to ask ourselves is if the putter is merely average, can he still win?

A 50-player field technically makes that less difficult. This is a golf course that should allow him separation, and the No. 1 player in the world is also the No. 1 player in the rankings for very good reason. He sits back atop the throne and has his heart set on sweeping the playoffs.

Joe Idone is a Read The Line contributor and host of the Preferred Lines podcast.