The BMW Championship will be played at Bellerive Country Club (par 70, 7,448 yards, bentgrass greens) in St. Louis, Missouri, which is the second of three events for the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Only the top-50 players in the FedEx Cup standings will be competing and there will be no cut. Following the BMW Championship, the top-30 will advance to the TOUR Championship next week to conclude the postseason. Bellerive has hosted four PGA TOUR events, most recently with the PGA Championship in 2018, which Brooks Koepka (-16) won by two strokes.
Below, I have featured two of my favorite outright long shot bets to win the BMW Championship on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Noren has never won on the PGA TOUR, but he is a 12-time winner on the DP World Tour and the Swede is inching closer to his first PGA TOUR victory. Noren has finished higher in each of his last three starts, finishing T-18 at the Open Championship, T-7 at the Wyndham Championship and T-3 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Noren has shot under par in nine of these 12 rounds, including three rounds of 66 and two rounds of 65. At the FedEx St. Jude Championship this past week, Noren put on a ball-striking clinic at the playoff opening event, leading the field in SG APP. Noren gained 6.6 strokes on approach to be exact, which is the third-best outing of his career in the category.
Noren now travels to Bellerive, where iron play is crucial, as Koepka ranked eighth in SG APP when he won here in 2018. If the elite ball-striking continues for Noren at Bellerive, the veteran breaking through for his first PGA TOUR win could happen.
Straka has been struggling, missing four of his last eight cuts and finishing no better than T-34 during this span. However, that T-34 came at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week and something changed for Straka in the final round at TPC Southwind.
The Aussie posted a 4-under 66, which was the second-lowest score of the final round and is Straka’s best score since the Truist Championship in May. Straka gained 4.5 strokes on approach in that final round alone, which was also the second-best mark of the day and is a season-high for the veteran.
Obviously, this is just one encouraging round, but we all know Straka is a very talented player and if he did finally turn a corner at TPC Southwind, him contending at Bellerive can’t be ruled out. Straka is a four-time winner on the PGA TOUR and two of these wins came just last season. Two of Straka’s victories have come at venues with bentgrass greens, which is the type of surface he will face at Bellerive in St. Louis. Straka has also won in the Midwest before, winning the 2023 John Deere Classic by two shots.