The PGA Tour season reaches its finish line this week at East Lake Golf Club, where Scottie Scheffler enters the Tour Championship as the clear player to beat.

Scheffler sits atop both Kalshi’s outright-winner market and the Dimers model, with each putting his chances of winning at roughly 22%.

However, after Scheffler, there is a massive disagreement between Kalshi and the Dimers model on several of the biggest names in the field.

Below, you will find a complete look at the Tour Championship market before Thursday’s opening round, including current Kalshi prices, Dimers projections, and the largest model-to-market differences.

Kalshi Tour Championship Odds:

Scheffler opens as the overwhelming favorite on Kalshi, with his YES contract priced at 22¢.

McIlroy is the clear second choice at 9.4¢, followed by Schauffele at 7.4¢.

Golfer/MarketImplied Probability“YES” PriceScottie Scheffler22%22¢Rory McIlroy9.4%9.4¢Xander Schauffele7.4%7.4¢Wyndham Clark5.0%5.0¢Collin Morikawa4.9%4.9¢Patrick Cantlay4.7%4.7¢Sam Burns4.7%4.7¢Ludvig Åberg4.5%4.6¢Cameron Young4.0%4.0¢Tommy Fleetwood3.9%3.9¢Matt Fitzpatrick3.4%3.4¢Chris Gotterup3.3%3.3¢Viktor Hovland3.3%3.3¢Si Woo Kim3.1%3.1¢Hideki Matsuyama2.9%2.9¢Russell Henley2.6%2.6¢

Remember that Kalshi prices can move throughout the week as participants buy and sell contracts, so these numbers should be treated as the current market rather than fixed tournament odds.

Dimers Projections: Tour Championship

Dimers also makes Scheffler the runaway favorite, assigning him a 22.2% probability of winning.

But after him, the model looks very different.

Sam Burns ranks second at 6.2%, while Wyndham Clark, McIlroy and Cantlay round out the top five.

Golfer/MarketDimers ProbabilityBest Available OddsScottie Scheffler22.2%+345Sam Burns6.2%+1800Wyndham Clark5.5%+1800Rory McIlroy5.2%+950Patrick Cantlay5.0%+1800Tommy Fleetwood4.4%+2200Matt Fitzpatrick4.4%+2200Collin Morikawa4.1%+2050Russell Henley3.8%+3000Chris Gotterup3.7%+2500Xander Schauffele3.5%+1225Ludvig Åberg3.4%+1800Si Woo Kim3.3%+2500Hideki Matsuyama3.0%+2900Cameron Young2.6%+2000

The biggest disagreements are near the top.

Dimers gives McIlroy only a 5.2% chance, compared with a 9.4¢ Kalshi contract. Schauffele presents an even larger relative difference, with a 3.5% Dimers projection against a 7.4¢ Kalshi price.

Those two appear substantially more expensive on Kalshi than the model’s price suggestions.

Best Trades: Tour Championship

The most interesting potential opportunities are golfers whose Dimers probability exceeds the price of their Kalshi YES contract.

Sam Burns stands out the most. Dimers gives Burns a 6.2% chance to win, while Kalshi prices his contract at only 4.7¢.

Golfer/MarketDimers ProbabilityKalshi “YES” PriceEdgeBest Available OddsSam Burns6.2%4.7¢+1.5 pts+1800Russell Henley3.8%2.6¢+1.2 pts+3000Matt Fitzpatrick4.4%3.4¢+1.0 pts+2200Wyndham Clark5.5%5.0¢+0.5 pts+1800Tommy Fleetwood4.4%3.9¢+0.5 pts+2200Ryan Gerard2.1%1.6¢+0.5 pts+4500J.J. Spaun1.9%1.4¢+0.5 pts+4800

Burns produces the largest positive gap at 1.5 percentage points, followed by Henley at 1.2 and Fitzpatrick at 1.0.

That does not make any of them likely winners in absolute terms, as the model’s argument is strictly about price versus projected probability.

On the other side, McIlroy and Schauffele stand out as the most expensive contracts relative to Dimers’ projections.

Kalshi prices McIlroy at 9.4¢ against a 5.2% model probability, while Schauffele sits at 7.4¢ versus only 3.5% from Dimers.

Tour Championship Details:

The Tour Championship begins Thursday, August 27th at East Lake Golf Club and runs through Sunday, August 30th.

Event DetailsEvent: Tour ChampionshipDates: Thursday, August 27 – Sunday, August 30, 2026Location: East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, GAPar: 70Course Length: 7,440 yardsPurse: $40 millionDefending Champion: Tommy FleetwoodTour Championship Winner Prediction Markets:

PGA Tour fans across the country can now use prediction markets to trade on golf as an alternative to typical betting. Here are our top options, and available promo codes for new users:

PlatformPGA/MLB Eligible?August ’26 Sign-Up BonusVerified Promo CodesPolymarketYes$20CUSE, MASS, OREGON, SILIVE, CLEVEKalshiYes$25SYRACUSE, OREGONLIVE1, MASSLIVE1, SILIVE, CLEVELANDNovigYes$50SYRACUSE, OREGON, MASSLIVE, CLEVELANDBetting on Tour Championship:

The Tour Championship begins tomorrow morning, with Tommy Fleetwood hoping to defend his title at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. We emphasize that all of the Tour Championship predictions and best bets on this page are derived from 10,000 data-driven simulations and are correct at the time of publishing.

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