The PGA Tour season reaches its finish line this week at East Lake Golf Club, where Scottie Scheffler enters the Tour Championship as the clear player to beat.<\/p>\n
Scheffler sits atop both Kalshi\u2019s outright-winner market and the Dimers model, with each putting his chances of winning at roughly 22%. <\/p>\n
However, after Scheffler, there is a massive disagreement between Kalshi and the Dimers model on several of the biggest names in the field.<\/p>\n
Below, you will find a complete look at the Tour Championship market before Thursday\u2019s opening round, including current Kalshi prices, Dimers projections, and the largest model-to-market differences.<\/p>\n
Kalshi Tour Championship Odds: <\/p>\n
Scheffler opens as the overwhelming favorite on Kalshi, with his YES contract priced at 22\u00a2.<\/p>\n
McIlroy is the clear second choice at 9.4\u00a2, followed by Schauffele at 7.4\u00a2.<\/p>\n
Golfer\/MarketImplied Probability\u201cYES\u201d PriceScottie Scheffler22%22\u00a2Rory McIlroy9.4%9.4\u00a2Xander Schauffele7.4%7.4\u00a2Wyndham Clark5.0%5.0\u00a2Collin Morikawa4.9%4.9\u00a2Patrick Cantlay4.7%4.7\u00a2Sam Burns4.7%4.7\u00a2Ludvig \u00c5berg4.5%4.6\u00a2Cameron Young4.0%4.0\u00a2Tommy Fleetwood3.9%3.9\u00a2Matt Fitzpatrick3.4%3.4\u00a2Chris Gotterup3.3%3.3\u00a2Viktor Hovland3.3%3.3\u00a2Si Woo Kim3.1%3.1\u00a2Hideki Matsuyama2.9%2.9\u00a2Russell Henley2.6%2.6\u00a2<\/p>\n
Remember that Kalshi prices can move throughout the week as participants buy and sell contracts, so these numbers should be treated as the current market rather than fixed tournament odds.<\/p>\n
Dimers Projections: Tour Championship<\/p>\n
Dimers also makes Scheffler the runaway favorite, assigning him a 22.2% probability of winning.<\/p>\n
But after him, the model looks very different.<\/p>\n
Sam Burns ranks second at 6.2%, while Wyndham Clark, McIlroy and Cantlay round out the top five.<\/p>\n
Golfer\/MarketDimers ProbabilityBest Available OddsScottie Scheffler22.2%+345Sam Burns6.2%+1800Wyndham Clark5.5%+1800Rory McIlroy5.2%+950Patrick Cantlay5.0%+1800Tommy Fleetwood4.4%+2200Matt Fitzpatrick4.4%+2200Collin Morikawa4.1%+2050Russell Henley3.8%+3000Chris Gotterup3.7%+2500Xander Schauffele3.5%+1225Ludvig \u00c5berg3.4%+1800Si Woo Kim3.3%+2500Hideki Matsuyama3.0%+2900Cameron Young2.6%+2000<\/p>\n
The biggest disagreements are near the top.<\/p>\n
Dimers gives McIlroy only a 5.2% chance, compared with a 9.4\u00a2 Kalshi contract. Schauffele presents an even larger relative difference, with a 3.5% Dimers projection against a 7.4\u00a2 Kalshi price.<\/p>\n
Those two appear substantially more expensive on Kalshi than the model\u2019s price suggestions.<\/p>\n
Best Trades: Tour Championship<\/p>\n
The most interesting potential opportunities are golfers whose Dimers probability exceeds the price of their Kalshi YES contract.<\/p>\n
Sam Burns stands out the most. Dimers gives Burns a 6.2% chance to win, while Kalshi prices his contract at only 4.7\u00a2.<\/p>\n
Golfer\/MarketDimers ProbabilityKalshi \u201cYES\u201d PriceEdgeBest Available OddsSam Burns6.2%4.7\u00a2+1.5 pts+1800Russell Henley3.8%2.6\u00a2+1.2 pts+3000Matt Fitzpatrick4.4%3.4\u00a2+1.0 pts+2200Wyndham Clark5.5%5.0\u00a2+0.5 pts+1800Tommy Fleetwood4.4%3.9\u00a2+0.5 pts+2200Ryan Gerard2.1%1.6\u00a2+0.5 pts+4500J.J. Spaun1.9%1.4\u00a2+0.5 pts+4800<\/p>\n
Burns produces the largest positive gap at 1.5 percentage points, followed by Henley at 1.2 and Fitzpatrick at 1.0.<\/p>\n
That does not make any of them likely winners in absolute terms, as the model\u2019s argument is strictly about price versus projected probability.<\/p>\n
On the other side, McIlroy and Schauffele stand out as the most expensive contracts relative to Dimers\u2019 projections. <\/p>\n
Kalshi prices McIlroy at 9.4\u00a2 against a 5.2% model probability, while Schauffele sits at 7.4\u00a2 versus only 3.5% from Dimers.<\/p>\n
Tour Championship Details:<\/p>\n
The Tour Championship begins Thursday, August 27th at East Lake Golf Club and runs through Sunday, August 30th.<\/p>\n
Event DetailsEvent: Tour ChampionshipDates: Thursday, August 27 \u2013 Sunday, August 30, 2026Location: East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, GAPar: 70Course Length: 7,440 yardsPurse: $40 millionDefending Champion: Tommy FleetwoodTour Championship Winner Prediction Markets:<\/p>\n
PGA Tour fans across the country can now use prediction markets to trade on golf as an alternative to typical betting. Here are our top options, and available promo codes for new users:<\/p>\n
PlatformPGA\/MLB Eligible?August \u201926 Sign-Up BonusVerified Promo CodesPolymarket<\/a>Yes$20CUSE<\/a>, MASS<\/a>, OREGON<\/a>, SILIVE<\/a>, CLEVEKalshi<\/a>Yes$25SYRACUSE<\/a>, OREGONLIVE1<\/a>, MASSLIVE1<\/a>, SILIVE<\/a>, CLEVELANDNovig<\/a>Yes$50SYRACUSE<\/a>, OREGON<\/a>, MASSLIVE<\/a>, CLEVELANDBetting on Tour Championship: <\/p>\n The Tour Championship begins tomorrow morning, with Tommy Fleetwood hoping to defend his title at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. We emphasize that all of the Tour Championship predictions and best bets on this page are derived from 10,000 data-driven simulations and are correct at the time of publishing.<\/p>\n Learn more about our gaming editorial staff<\/a>.<\/p>\n If you or a loved one has questions and needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call the Massachusetts Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org<\/a> to speak with a trained specialist to receive support. Specialists are available 24\/7. Services are available in multiple languages and are free and confidential.<\/p>\n If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement<\/a> and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and\/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The PGA Tour season reaches its finish line this week at East Lake Golf Club, where Scottie Scheffler…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":56747,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[1401],"class_list":["post-56746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-xander-schauffele","tag-xander-schauffele"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56746","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56746"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56746\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56746"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56746"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/golf\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56746"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}