{"id":156001,"date":"2026-06-30T05:38:07","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T05:38:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/156001\/"},"modified":"2026-06-30T05:38:07","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T05:38:07","slug":"vallalkozas-a-forint-erore-kapott-emiatt-sokan-szivhatjak-a-fogukat-ime-a-legnagyobb-vesztesek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/156001\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00e1llalkoz\u00e1s: A forint er\u0151re kapott, emiatt sokan sz\u00edvhatj\u00e1k a fogukat, \u00edme a legnagyobb vesztesek"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00f6zel 9,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00f6tt az eur\u00f3val szemben id\u00e9n a forint. Az MNB \u00f6r\u00fcl: az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 1,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra s\u00fcllyedt, de az export\u00e1l\u00f3 iparv\u00e1llalatok kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 boldogok, legal\u00e1bbis erre utal a <a href=\"https:\/\/hvg.hu\/cimke\/gki\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">GKI <\/a>Gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 felm\u00e9r\u00e9se, amely arra k\u00e9rdezett r\u00e1 1356 v\u00e1llalkoz\u00e1s bevon\u00e1s\u00e1val, hogy mik\u00e9nt hat a er\u0151s forint a j\u00f6vedelmez\u00e9s\u00fckre, az eredm\u00e9nyt r\u00f6viden is \u00f6sszefoglalt\u00e1k:\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Aki import\u00e1l, nyer. Aki export\u00e1l, fizet.<\/p>\n<p>A felm\u00e9r\u00e9sb\u0151l \u2013 ami sor\u00e1n -100 \u00e9s 100 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt kellett \u00e9rt\u00e9kelni az er\u0151s forint hat\u00e1s\u00e1t a j\u00f6vedelmez\u0151s\u00e9gre \u2013 kider\u00fcl, hogy<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-block-hvg-custom-image__image\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/302dd775-cc9c-40e2-bc7c-1568f7cd2d38.jpg\" data-size=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/302dd775-cc9c-40e2-bc7c-1568f7cd2d38.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>A forint 2026-os er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s\u00e9nek \u00e1tlagos hat\u00e1sa a v\u00e1llalati j\u00f6vedelmez\u0151s\u00e9gre \u00e1gazatonk\u00e9nt (pont\u00e9rt\u00e9k -100 \u00e9s +100 k\u00f6z\u00f6tti sk\u00e1l\u00e1n m\u00e9rve)<\/p>\n<p>GKI<\/p>\n<p>Az eredm\u00e9nyek h\u00e1tter\u00e9ben azt tal\u00e1lt\u00e1k, hogy az ipar \u00e1rr\u00e9se alacsony, jellemz\u0151en 2-5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k. A forint 9,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9se \u00f6nmag\u00e1ban 2-2,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kpontos eur\u00f3ban m\u00e9rt k\u00f6lts\u00e9gn\u00f6veked\u00e9st jelent, mik\u00f6zben az \u00e1rbev\u00e9tel forintban m\u00e9rt \u00e9rt\u00e9ke cs\u00f6kken. A GKI sz\u00e1m\u00edt\u00e1sa szerint az els\u0151 n\u00e9gy h\u00f3napban m\u00e9g semleges volt az \u00e1rfolyamhat\u00e1s az ipari exportra, az az\u00f3ta bek\u00f6vetkez\u0151 tov\u00e1bbi er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s azonban m\u00e1r vesztes\u00e9get okoz. Ezzel szemben a kereskedelem (+2) \u00e9s az \u00e9p\u00edt\u0151ipar (+4) enyh\u00e9n pozit\u00edv \u00e9rt\u00e9ket jelzett: itt az import\u00e1lt alapanyagok \u00e9s beruh\u00e1z\u00e1si javak ar\u00e1nya nagy, ott a forinter\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s k\u00f6lts\u00e9goldalon kedvez\u0151.<\/p>\n<p>Megvizsg\u00e1lt\u00e1k a hat\u00e1st v\u00e1llalatm\u00e9ret szerinti bont\u00e1s alapj\u00e1n is, ahol az l\u00e1tszik, hogy az \u00e1rfolyamhat\u00e1s intenzit\u00e1sa a m\u00e9ret n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9vel fokoz\u00f3dik: a 10 f\u0151 alatti v\u00e1llalkoz\u00e1sok \u00e1tlagosan -6-os, m\u00edg az 50 f\u0151 feletti c\u00e9gek -25-\u00f6s hat\u00e1st jeleztek.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-block-hvg-custom-image__image\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/6987adc6-9d20-49de-b908-5be8f2830efa.jpg\" data-size=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/6987adc6-9d20-49de-b908-5be8f2830efa.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>A forint 2026-os er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s\u00e9nek \u00e1tlagos hat\u00e1sa a v\u00e1llalati j\u00f6vedelmez\u0151s\u00e9gre v\u00e1llalatm\u00e9ret szerint (pont\u00e9rt\u00e9k -100 \u00e9s +100 k\u00f6z\u00f6tti sk\u00e1l\u00e1n m\u00e9rve)<\/p>\n<p>GKI<\/p>\n<p>Kiugr\u00f3an negat\u00edvan \u00e9rt\u00e9kelt\u00e9k a helyzetet a nagyobb szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3c\u00e9gek. Ennek h\u00e1tter\u00e9ben azt tal\u00e1lt\u00e1k, hogy magas a b\u00e9rk\u00f6lts\u00e9g ar\u00e1nya \u2013 30-40 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k \u2013 ami forintban jelentkezik. A GKI sz\u00e1m\u00edt\u00e1sai szerint az idei forinter\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s \u00f6nmag\u00e1ban 5-6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos eur\u00f3ban m\u00e9rt k\u00f6lts\u00e9gemelked\u00e9st okozott a szektorban, a b\u00e9r- \u00e9s egy\u00e9b k\u00f6lts\u00e9gekkel egy\u00fctt, \u00e9s\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"highlighted\">a teljes 2026-os k\u00f6lts\u00e9gn\u00f6veked\u00e9s eur\u00f3ban m\u00e9rve 10-11 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A m\u00e9rethat\u00e1s szembet\u0171n\u0151: a 10 f\u0151 alatti szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3 c\u00e9gek -9-es hat\u00e1st jeleztek, az 50 f\u0151 felettiek -36-osat, ami a teljes minta legrosszabb eredm\u00e9nye. A nagyobb c\u00e9gek m\u00e9lyebben integr\u00e1l\u00f3dtak a nemzetk\u00f6zi piacokba, ez\u00e9rt az \u00e1rfolyammozg\u00e1s k\u00f6zvetlenebb\u00fcl \u00fcti meg a nyeres\u00e9g\u00fcket.<\/p>\n<p>Mit jelent mindez hosszabb t\u00e1von a magyar gazdas\u00e1gnak?<\/p>\n<p>A forint er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9se makroszinten infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t m\u00e9rs\u00e9kel \u2014 de v\u00e1llalati szinten \u00fajraosztja a nyeres\u00e9get \u00e9s a vesztes\u00e9get. Az exportvez\u00e9relt nagyobb c\u00e9gek j\u00f6vedelmez\u0151s\u00e9g\u00e9nek erod\u00e1l\u00f3d\u00e1sa hosszabb t\u00e1von visszavetheti a k\u00fclkereskedelmi t\u00f6bbletet \u00e9s a foly\u00f3 fizet\u00e9si m\u00e9rleget. R\u00e1ad\u00e1sul az olcs\u00f3bb import a f\u0151leg belf\u00f6ldi piacra termel\u0151 c\u00e9geket is nyom\u00e1s al\u00e1 helyezi: a GKI adatai szerint az import\u00e1lt javak az els\u0151 hat h\u00f3napban v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an 8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal olcs\u00f3bbodnak, ami a hazai piacra termel\u0151k versenyh\u00e1tr\u00e1ny\u00e1t n\u00f6veli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"K\u00f6zel 9,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00f6tt az eur\u00f3val szemben id\u00e9n a forint. Az MNB \u00f6r\u00fcl: az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 1,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra s\u00fcllyedt,&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":156002,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[33],"tags":[10400,44727,38,7926,63,25359,7925,35,37,44,42,40,3048,3865,43,41,34,9036,36,39],"class_list":["post-156001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-hirek","tag-epitoipar","tag-eros-forint","tag-focimek","tag-forintarfolyam","tag-gazdasag","tag-gki","tag-gki-gazdasagkutato","tag-headlines","tag-hirek","tag-hu","tag-hungarian","tag-hungary","tag-ipar","tag-kereskedelem","tag-magyar","tag-magyarorszag","tag-news","tag-szolgaltatas","tag-top-stories","tag-vezeto-hirek"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@hu\/116837450320847305","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/156001","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=156001"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/156001\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/156002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=156001"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=156001"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=156001"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}