{"id":16198,"date":"2026-03-05T16:27:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T16:27:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/16198\/"},"modified":"2026-03-05T16:27:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T16:27:08","slug":"ugy-viselkedik-a-forint-mint-a-2022-es-energiavalsag-idejen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/16198\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00dagy viselkedik a forint, mint a 2022-es energiav\u00e1ls\u00e1g idej\u00e9n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1772716589-temp-o8qm5oofp11e3kMlCPK_hero-normal:xl.jpg\"  loading=\"eager\" alt=\"\u00dagy viselkedik a forint, mint a 2022-es energiav\u00e1ls\u00e1g idej\u00e9n\" class=\"placeholder_\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Cseppfoly\u00f3s\u00edtott f\u00f6ldg\u00e1z \u00e1talak\u00edt\u00f3 Rotterdamban \u2013 Fot\u00f3: Sem van der Wal \/ AFP<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/telex.hu\/szerzo\/torontali-zoltan\" class=\"author__avatar\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/1771944831-temp-kp4266qj8na9dDMPaiP_avatar@4x.jpg\" alt=\"Toront\u00e1li Zolt\u00e1n\" class=\"avatar\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Kisz\u00e1m\u00edthatatlanul mozog a forint az eur\u00f3val \u00e9s a doll\u00e1rral szemben az ut\u00f3bbi napokban, a magyar deviza kimondottan \u00e9rz\u00e9keny a k\u00f6zel-keleti konfliktus glob\u00e1lis hat\u00e1saira.<\/p>\n<p>Fel\u00fcln\u00e9zet: a lapunk \u00e1ltal megk\u00e9rdezett szak\u00e9rt\u0151k szerint a piac megint a 2022-es energiav\u00e1ls\u00e1g alatt m\u00e1r l\u00e1tott forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv szerint viselkedik.<\/p>\n<p>Magyarorsz\u00e1g energiaimport-kitetts\u00e9ge nemzetk\u00f6zi \u00f6sszehasonl\u00edt\u00e1sban is jelent\u0151s, az olaj \u00e9s a g\u00e1z \u00e1r\u00e1nak emelked\u00e9se \u00edgy alapvet\u0151en gyeng\u00edti a forintot, az energiahordoz\u00f3k \u00e1rcs\u00f6kken\u00e9se pedig er\u0151s\u00edti.A forint \u00e1rfolyama gyakorlatilag a rotterdami g\u00e1zt\u0151zsd\u00e9vel szinkronban mozog \u2013 mondja Elek P\u00e9ter f\u00fcggetlen p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi szak\u00e9rt\u0151.A m\u00e1sik f\u0151 k\u00f6zvetett hat\u00e1s, hogy a k\u00f6zel-keleti konfliktus miatt doll\u00e1rba menek\u00fclnek a befektet\u0151k, ez\u00e9rt az egy\u00e9b poz\u00edci\u00f3ikat z\u00e1rj\u00e1k.A kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 biztons\u00e1gosnak tartott kelet-eur\u00f3pai deviz\u00e1k mind gyeng\u00fclnek, de ezen bel\u00fcl a forint az eml\u00edtett energiaf\u00fcgg\u0151s\u00e9g miatt er\u0151teljesebben.<\/p>\n<p>Sz\u00e1mokban: cikk\u00fcnk \u00edr\u00e1sakor az ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3 Brent olaj hord\u00f3ja 84 doll\u00e1ron \u00e1llt, a f\u00f6ldg\u00e1z megawatt\u00f3r\u00e1nk\u00e9nti \u00e1rfolyama pedig 50 eur\u00f3 felett volt.<\/p>\n<p>Becsl\u00e9sek szerint Magyarorsz\u00e1gon 7-8 milli\u00e1rd eur\u00f3 spekulat\u00edv, \u00fagynevezett forr\u00f3 p\u00e9nz forog, amellyel adott esetben gyorsan ki lehet l\u00e9pni a forintos poz\u00edci\u00f3kb\u00f3l.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00e1gabb kontextus: ha tart\u00f3san magasan maradnak az energia\u00e1rak, az f\u00e9kezheti a magyar gazdas\u00e1g n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9t, \u00e9s n\u00f6velheti az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t, illetve ronthatja a k\u00fcls\u0151 egyens\u00falyt \u2013 mondja Virov\u00e1cz P\u00e9ter, az ING elemz\u0151je.<\/p>\n<p>Az ir\u00e1ni-amerikai\/izraeli h\u00e1bor\u00fa els\u0151 sokkja ut\u00e1n azonban szerinte m\u00e1r a korrekci\u00f3 \u00e9s a stabilit\u00e1s jeleit kezdi mutatni a forint, \u00e9s ha a konfliktus nem h\u00faz\u00f3dik el, akkor az \u00e1tmeneti \u00e1rfolyam-ingadoz\u00e1s csillapodhat.Az amerikai g\u00e1zt\u00f3l val\u00f3 er\u0151s f\u00fcgg\u00e9s egy\u00e9bk\u00e9nt <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/TransitionSec\/status\/2029496562267631636\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">eg\u00e9sz Eur\u00f3pa gyenges\u00e9ge<\/a>, elemz\u0151k szerint a 2022-es energiav\u00e1ls\u00e1g \u00f3ta a kontinens orsz\u00e1gai nem fektettek el\u00e9g forr\u00e1st a f\u00fcggetlens\u00e9g\u00fck n\u00f6vel\u00e9s\u00e9be.K\u00edna 2022 \u00e9s 2025 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt a GDP 3,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1t k\u00f6lt\u00f6tte energiaf\u00fcggetlens\u00e9g\u00e9nek n\u00f6vel\u00e9s\u00e9re, m\u00edg az eur\u00f3pai uni\u00f3s orsz\u00e1gok \u00e9s az Egyes\u00fclt Kir\u00e1lys\u00e1g csak 1,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot ford\u00edtottak erre.<\/p>\n<p>Mi k\u00f6vetkezik? Virov\u00e1cz P\u00e9ter v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sai szerint az eur\u00f3 \u00e1rfolyama nem fog kil\u00e9pni a 375 \u2013 390 forintos s\u00e1vb\u00f3l, \u00e9s m\u00e9g ha hosszabb vil\u00e1gpiaci bizonytalans\u00e1g lesz, akkor is 380 forint k\u00f6zel\u00e9ben stabiliz\u00e1l\u00f3dhat.<\/p>\n<p>Amennyiben a k\u00f6zel-keleti konfliktusban ma m\u00e9g nem l\u00e1that\u00f3, v\u00e1ratlan sokkok k\u00f6vetkeznek, akkor a fenti becsl\u00e9s alapvet\u0151en borulhat.Magyarorsz\u00e1g eset\u00e9ben a parlamenti v\u00e1laszt\u00e1sokat is figyeli a piac, az eur\u00f3\u00e1rfolyam szempontj\u00e1b\u00f3l az a f\u0151 k\u00e9rd\u00e9s, hogy \u00e1prilis 12-e (b\u00e1rmilyen el\u0151jel\u0171) egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171 eredm\u00e9nyt hoz, vagy \u00e1tmeneti politikai bizonytalans\u00e1got, ut\u00f3bbit a forint is megszenvedn\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00f6vess minket Facebookon is!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Cseppfoly\u00f3s\u00edtott f\u00f6ldg\u00e1z \u00e1talak\u00edt\u00f3 Rotterdamban \u2013 Fot\u00f3: Sem van der Wal \/ AFP Kisz\u00e1m\u00edthatatlanul mozog a forint az eur\u00f3val&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":16199,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[3397,1444,1382,3400,3394,42,4355,6538,43,34,327,94,93,92],"class_list":{"0":"post-16198","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-vilag","8":"tag-arfolyam","9":"tag-egyperces","10":"tag-energia","11":"tag-euro","12":"tag-forint","13":"tag-hungarian","14":"tag-import","15":"tag-irani-izraeli-konfliktus","16":"tag-magyar","17":"tag-news","18":"tag-penz","19":"tag-vilag","20":"tag-world","21":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@hu\/116177511710986844","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16198","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16198"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16198\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16199"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16198"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16198"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16198"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}