{"id":216206,"date":"2026-08-21T15:33:10","date_gmt":"2026-08-21T15:33:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/216206\/"},"modified":"2026-08-21T15:33:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-21T15:33:10","slug":"jaszberenyi-sandor-vege-az-amerikai-modellnek-a-kozel-keleten","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/216206\/","title":{"rendered":"J\u00e1szber\u00e9nyi S\u00e1ndor: V\u00e9ge az amerikai modellnek a K\u00f6zel-Keleten"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ir\u00e1n megnyerte a h\u00e1bor\u00fat. Strat\u00e9giai \u00e9rtelemben mindenk\u00e9ppen. Az amerikai\u2013izraeli koal\u00edci\u00f3 abb\u00f3l a t\u00e9ves elk\u00e9pzel\u00e9sb\u0151l indult ki, hogy amennyiben likvid\u00e1lj\u00e1k a teokr\u00e1cia vezet\u0151it, c\u00e9lzott csap\u00e1sokkal meggyeng\u00edtik a katonai \u00e9s logisztikai infrastrukt\u00far\u00e1t, \u00fagy az el\u00e9gedetlen ir\u00e1ni t\u00e1rsadalom majd felkel, kiv\u00edvja a demokr\u00e1ci\u00e1t, \u00e9s minden \u00fagy lesz, mint a sah idej\u00e9ben, akit egy\u00e9bk\u00e9nt az <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/aug\/02\/mi6-the-coup-in-iran-that-changed-the-middle-east-and-the-cover-up\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">amerikai \u00e9s brit szolg\u00e1latok juttattak hatalomba<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Nem ez t\u00f6rt\u00e9nt. Az ir\u00e1ni \u00e1llam nem omlott \u00f6ssze, a vezet\u00e9s nem kapitul\u00e1lt, a rendszernek pedig nagyobb lett a t\u00e1mogatotts\u00e1ga, mint b\u00e1rmikor az elm\u00falt \u00e9vekben. A kit\u0171z\u00f6tt politikai c\u00e9l nem val\u00f3sult meg.<\/p>\n<p>Az ir\u00e1ni hadsereg \u2013 b\u00e1r val\u00f3ban s\u00falyos vesztes\u00e9geket szenvedett \u2013 k\u00f6sz\u00f6ni sz\u00e9pen, j\u00f3l van. Adapt\u00e1l\u00f3dott a h\u00e1bor\u00fahoz, \u00e9s felismerte, hogy a strat\u00e9giai gy\u0151zelemhez nem kell legy\u0151znie a vil\u00e1g legnagyobb hadsereg\u00e9t. El\u00e9g, ha el tudja lehetetlen\u00edteni a Hormuzi-szoroson zajl\u00f3 f\u00f6ldg\u00e1z- \u00e9s k\u0151olajsz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1st. Ehhez nem kell minden tankert els\u00fcllyesztenie. El\u00e9g n\u00e9h\u00e1ny t\u00e1mad\u00e1s \u00e9s a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 t\u00e1mad\u00e1s lehet\u0151s\u00e9ge. A biztos\u00edt\u00e1si d\u00edjak emelkednek, a haj\u00f3k elker\u00fclik a t\u00e9rs\u00e9get, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/middle-east\/gulf-states-accept-a-new-normal-in-hormuz-iran-is-in-control-6db8908d\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">az energia\u00e1rakat pedig Teher\u00e1n dikt\u00e1lja<\/a>, mint meghat\u00e1roz\u00f3 szerepl\u0151je a vil\u00e1g energiaell\u00e1t\u00e1s\u00e1nak.<\/p>\n<p>Ez katasztrof\u00e1lis kudarc az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamoknak, de az amerikai modellnek is, amely a h\u00e1bor\u00fa el\u0151tt jellemezte a K\u00f6zel-Keletet. Az \u00d6b\u00f6l \u00e1llamai m\u00e1r nem \u00e1tmeneti v\u00e1ls\u00e1gk\u00e9nt, hanem konkr\u00e9t <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/world\/middle-east\/gulf-states-accept-a-new-normal-in-hormuz-iran-is-in-control-6db8908d\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">realit\u00e1sk\u00e9nt kezelik Ir\u00e1n szerep\u00e9t a szoros ellen\u0151rz\u00e9s\u00e9ben<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>De ez a kisebb baj.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ir\u00e1n megnyerte a h\u00e1bor\u00fat. Strat\u00e9giai \u00e9rtelemben mindenk\u00e9ppen. Az amerikai\u2013izraeli koal\u00edci\u00f3 abb\u00f3l a t\u00e9ves elk\u00e9pzel\u00e9sb\u0151l indult ki, hogy amennyiben&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":216207,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[8],"tags":[1494,65,1358,7011,42,7219,58443,43,34,46525,94,93,92],"class_list":["post-216206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-vilag","tag-benjamin-netanjahu","tag-donald-trump","tag-hirlevel","tag-hormuzi-szoros","tag-hungarian","tag-irani-haboru","tag-jaszberenyi-sandor","tag-magyar","tag-news","tag-nincs-tanulsag","tag-vilag","tag-world","tag-world-news"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@hu\/117134229760334196","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216206","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=216206"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216206\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/216207"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=216206"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=216206"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=216206"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}