{"id":67751,"date":"2026-04-18T07:33:07","date_gmt":"2026-04-18T07:33:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/67751\/"},"modified":"2026-04-18T07:33:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-18T07:33:07","slug":"gki-elhalasztjak-iteletuket-a-hitelminositok-a-kormanyvaltas-miatt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/67751\/","title":{"rendered":"GKI: elhalasztj\u00e1k \u00edt\u00e9let\u00fcket a hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151k a korm\u00e1nyv\u00e1lt\u00e1s miatt"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151k fokozott figyelemmel k\u00eds\u00e9rt\u00e9k a magyar v\u00e1laszt\u00e1sokat, \u00e9s b\u0151 egy h\u00f3nap m\u00falva m\u00e9g nem mondanak \u00edt\u00e9letet \u2013 \u00e1ll\u00edtj\u00e1k a GKI Gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 Zrt. friss elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben. Jelenleg a h\u00e1rom legnagyobb min\u0151s\u00edt\u0151, a Fitch, a Moodys \u00e9s az S&amp;P eset\u00e9ben is Magyarorsz\u00e1g ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gbesorol\u00e1sa negat\u00edv kil\u00e1t\u00e1ssal a befektet\u00e9sre aj\u00e1nlott kateg\u00f3ria als\u00f3 hat\u00e1ra k\u00f6zel\u00e9ben tal\u00e1lhat\u00f3. Legkor\u00e1bban, m\u00e1jus 22-\u00e9n a Moody\u2019s fel\u00fclvizsg\u00e1lata v\u00e1rhat\u00f3, de az S&amp;P egy h\u00e9ttel k\u00e9s\u0151bbi fel\u00fclvizsg\u00e1lata a legkritikusabb, mivel n\u00e1luk csup\u00e1n <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/24.hu\/fn\/gazdasag\/2026\/03\/24\/hitelminosito-koltsegvetes-sp-hiany\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">egy l\u00e9p\u00e9s v\u00e1lasztja el Magyarorsz\u00e1got a b\u00f3vli kateg\u00f3ri\u00e1t\u00f3l<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00e1r a hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151k indokolt esetben b\u00e1rmikor l\u00e9phetnek, az \u00faj korm\u00e1ny fel\u00e1ll\u00e1s\u00e1ig nem val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171 azonnali lemin\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9s. Az int\u00e9zm\u00e9nyek ugyanis kommunik\u00e1ci\u00f3juk alapj\u00e1n megv\u00e1rj\u00e1k <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/24.hu\/fn\/gazdasag\/2026\/04\/10\/koltsegvetes-hiany-eu-tulzottdeficit%E2%80%91eljaras\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9st stabiliz\u00e1l\u00f3<\/a> \u00e9s egy\u00e9b gazdas\u00e1gpolitikai terveket,<\/p>\n<p>\u00edgy nagy az es\u00e9lye, hogy majd azok alapj\u00e1n az \u0151szi m\u00e1sodik fel\u00fclvizsg\u00e1lat sor\u00e1n d\u00f6ntenek a fel\u00fclvizsg\u00e1latr\u00f3l \u00e9s mostanra a jelenlegi besorol\u00e1s tart\u00e1sa v\u00e1rhat\u00f3<\/p>\n<p>\u2013 sz\u00f3l a kutat\u00f3c\u00e9g progn\u00f3zisa.<\/p>\n<p>A r\u00e9gi\u00f3s p\u00e9ld\u00e1k eset\u00e9ben a 2021-es cseh \u00e9s a 2023-as lengyel politikai fordulatok ut\u00e1n sem t\u00f6rt\u00e9nt hirtelen min\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9sm\u00f3dos\u00edt\u00e1s.<\/p>\n<p>Idehaza viszont fontos egy \u00faj k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si terv elk\u00e9sz\u00edt\u00e9se, hiszen m\u00e1rcius v\u00e9g\u00e9re a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si hi\u00e1ny meghaladta az \u00e9ves t\u00f6rv\u00e9nyi el\u0151ir\u00e1nyzat 80 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1t, de az els\u0151 h\u00e1rom havi 3,4 ezer milli\u00e1rd forintos hi\u00e1ny az id\u0151k\u00f6zben megemelt, 5 ezer milli\u00e1rdos korm\u00e1nyzati v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1snak is m\u00e1r a 68 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9ka.<\/p>\n<p>A korm\u00e1nyzati \u00e9v eleji kiad\u00e1sok jelent\u0151s r\u00e9sze r\u00e1ad\u00e1sul <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/24.hu\/fn\/gazdasag\/2026\/03\/24\/koltsegvetes-valasztas-2026-allamhaztartas-deficit\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">tart\u00f3s \u00e9s politikailag nehezen visszavonhat\u00f3<\/a> k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9g, mint a t\u00e1mogatott kamatoz\u00e1s\u00fa hitelek (az Otthon Start, a v\u00e1llalkoz\u00f3i hitelprogramok), a h\u00e1rom- \u00e9s r\u00e9szben a k\u00e9tgyermekes any\u00e1k SZJA-mentess\u00e9ge, a csal\u00e1di ad\u00f3kedvezm\u00e9ny \u00fajabb emel\u00e9se \u00e9s a k\u00f6zszf\u00e9ra b\u00e9remel\u00e9sei.<\/p>\n<p>Az \u00faj kabinet k\u00f6nnyebbs\u00e9get hozhat<\/p>\n<p>Az Open Budget Survey nemzetk\u00f6zi kutat\u00e1sai alapj\u00e1n Magyarorsz\u00e1g k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9s\u00e9nek \u00e1tl\u00e1that\u00f3s\u00e1ga az elm\u00falt \u00e9vekben rosszabbnak bizonyult a r\u00e9gi\u00f3s t\u00e1rsakhoz k\u00e9pest. A min\u0151s\u00edt\u0151k \u00e9s befektet\u0151k bizalm\u00e1nak er\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9se \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben ez\u00e9rt l\u00e9nyeges a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9s \u00e1tl\u00e1that\u00f3bb\u00e1 t\u00e9tele \u00e9s az esetleges m\u00f3dos\u00edt\u00e1sok k\u00f6vetkezetes \u00e1tvezet\u00e9se.<\/p>\n<p>Az eur\u00f3pai uni\u00f3s p\u00e9nzek (befagyasztott koh\u00e9zi\u00f3s \u00e9s helyre\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1si alap forr\u00e1sainak) felszabad\u00edt\u00e1sa d\u00f6nt\u0151 t\u00e9nyez\u0151 lehet a hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9sek alakul\u00e1s\u00e1ban. A v\u00e1laszt\u00e1sokat k\u00f6vet\u0151 napokban mindh\u00e1rom hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 friss elemz\u00e9st adott ki, melyben kiemelt\u00e9k, hogy az uni\u00f3s forr\u00e1sok megszerz\u00e9se a n\u00f6veked\u00e9si kil\u00e1t\u00e1sok \u00e9s a k\u00fcls\u0151 egyens\u00faly er\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9n kereszt\u00fcl jav\u00edthatja az orsz\u00e1g hitelk\u00e9pess\u00e9g\u00e9t.<\/p>\n<p>A v\u00e1laszt\u00e1si eredm\u00e9nyek befektet\u0151i meg\u00edt\u00e9l\u00e9se cs\u00f6kken\u0151 hazai fisk\u00e1lis kock\u00e1zatokat t\u00fckr\u00f6z.<\/p>\n<p>A r\u00e9gi\u00f3s hossz\u00fa hozamok alakul\u00e1sa ezt mutatja, hiszen, m\u00edg a magyar 10 \u00e9ves hozam a m\u00e1rciusi cs\u00facshoz k\u00e9pest a v\u00e1laszt\u00e1sok ut\u00e1nra k\u00f6zel 150 b\u00e1zisponttal cs\u00f6kkentve m\u00e1r b\u0151ven az \u00e9v eleji szintje alatt j\u00e1r, addig a r\u00e9gi\u00f3s hozamok v\u00e1ltozatlanul a janu\u00e1ri szintj\u00fck f\u00f6l\u00f6tt \u00e1llnak \u2013 \u00edrta elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben a GKI.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151k fokozott figyelemmel k\u00eds\u00e9rt\u00e9k a magyar v\u00e1laszt\u00e1sokat, \u00e9s b\u0151 egy h\u00f3nap m\u00falva m\u00e9g nem mondanak \u00edt\u00e9letet \u2013&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67752,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[25358,5399,38,25359,35,37,9949,44,42,40,1524,43,41,34,36,39],"class_list":{"0":"post-67751","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-hirek","8":"tag-adosbesorolas","9":"tag-allamadossag","10":"tag-focimek","11":"tag-gki","12":"tag-headlines","13":"tag-hirek","14":"tag-hitelminosito","15":"tag-hu","16":"tag-hungarian","17":"tag-hungary","18":"tag-koltsegvetes","19":"tag-magyar","20":"tag-magyarorszag","21":"tag-news","22":"tag-top-stories","23":"tag-vezeto-hirek"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@hu\/116424553488830170","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67751","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67751"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67751\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67752"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/hu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}