The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has warned that the complex mix of regulations governing the east coast gas market is fuelling the risk of domestic supply shortfalls and deterring much-needed investment, underscoring the importance of the Commonwealth’s Gas Market Review to deliver long-term reform.
Australian Energy Producers Chief Executive Samantha McCulloch said the findings reaffirm concerns raised by producers that the existing framework is failing to support a competitive and functioning market.
“The ACCC has confirmed the east coast gas market is not working for anyone, and eastern Australia faces increased risk of shortfalls and higher energy prices if these concerns are not addressed,” McCulloch said.
The latest Gas Inquiry report examined the Gas Market Code, the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM) and the Heads of Agreement (HoAs) with Queensland LNG exporters.
It concluded that “the instruments have not addressed underlying constraints” in the gas market.
The commission also found that the 2023 changes to the ADGSM “appear to have had the unintended consequence of exacerbating the risk of domestic supply shortfalls.”
While the ACCC forecasts a surplus of 2–24 petajoules in the March quarter of 2026, shortfalls are projected from 2028 onwards.
The inquiry also noted that long-term supply deals for 2026–27 have improved but remain below 2022 levels.
McCulloch said the Gas Market Review represented an opportunity to move beyond “reactive market interventions and perpetual shortfall forecasts” by delivering enduring reforms that boost supply and restore confidence in the market.
“The priority must be addressing approval delays to unlock new gas supply close to where it is needed, and to work with gas producers and users on the design of a prospective gas reservation framework linked to new supply that provides longer term supply certainty,” she said.
Australian Energy Producers has put forward reforms that include a prospective reservation policy tied to new supply, streamlined approvals, the removal of reporting duplication, and measures to expand pipeline and storage capacity.
“Industry stands ready to work with governments and gas users to ensure we have a well-supplied gas market to provide Australians with reliable and affordable energy,” McCulloch said.
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