The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) released two new reports this week that examine the evolving challenges of maintaining reliability of the high voltage electric system.
First, NYISO released its third-quarter Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR), which studies electric system reliability over a five-year period from July 15, 2025, through July 15, 2030. It identifies reliability violations in New York City and Long Island beginning in the summer of 2026. The violations are driven by generator deactivations, increasing consumer demand, and transmission limitations.
The reliability needs identified by the STAR in New York City and Long Island are based on a deficiency in transmission security. Transmission security analysis tests the ability of the power system to withstand disturbances, such as electric short circuits or unanticipated loss of a generator or a transmission line, while continuing to deliver electricity during peak demand.
The finding of a reliability need initiates a process administered by NYISO to bring reliability margins back to acceptable operating levels. NYISO will begin the process immediately by working with the local utilities and the marketplace to identify and evaluate possible solutions.
Second, NYISO issued the 2025-2034 Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP), issued biennially, which sets forth the plan to maintain a reliable electric grid over a 10-year planning period. The CRP warns that the New York State electric system faces an era of profound reliability challenges driven by the convergence of three structural trends: the aging of the existing generation fleet; the rapid growth of large loads including data centers and semiconductor manufacturing; and the increasing difficulty of developing new supply resources due to public policies, supply chain constraints and rising costs for equipment.
The CRP uses several informational scenarios to examine the impacts of key risk factors and capture possible outcomes for grid planning purposes. Major factors that influence the scenarios include aging generation, variable demand forecasts, weather variability, and ongoing delays in developing additional resources. Further, the CRP lays out different scenarios of resource additions to demonstrate potential solutions to support long-term grid reliability.
“Taken together, these two reports show the grid is at a significant inflection point,” Zach Smith, senior vice president of system and resource planning for the New York Independent System Operator, said. “Depending on future demand growth and generator retirements, the system may need several thousand megawatts of new dispatchable generation within the next ten years.”
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