At the “Life Fest 40+: Better to Know Early” event held at CentralWorld in Bangkok, Surapol Opasatien, Chief Executive Officer of the National Credit Bureau, warned that Thailand’s economy is entering a downturn, with household debt emerging as a critical risk factor.
Without immediate intervention, the economy could expand by less than 1% — or not at all — in the final quarter of 2025, despite the usual year-end spending boost.
Surapol noted that government stimulus measures such as Khon La Khrueng (Let’s Go Halves) remain crucial. The Bank of Thailand recently projected only 1.6% GDP growth for 2026, and if companies continue to grow by no more than 2%, questions may arise about potential layoffs.
He added that Thailand’s financial crisis began during the Covid-19 pandemic, which caused widespread income loss between 2020 and 2023 — especially among 10 million self-employed workers. According to central bank data, it could take up to four to five years for their earnings to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
Currently, Thais are facing shrinking incomes, rising expenses, and escalating debt. Over the past three years, average income has grown by only 3%, while household spending — including debt repayment — has risen by 5%, creating a widening financial imbalance.