While Irish winters have historically been cold, calm and dry, El Niño – a warming of water temperatures around the Pacific Equator – could trigger warmer, stormier and wetter winters.
Met Éireann climate scientist Dr Tido Semmler has, with overseas colleagues, published research on the future impact of El Niño in the journal Nature Communications.
“Climate whiplash means change between extreme conditions,” Dr Semmler said.
Laura Pla and Patricia Llacero from Spain walking in St Stephen’s Green, Dublin. Photo: Tom Honan
In Ireland, our weather patterns are more heavily impacted by the North Atlantic jet stream, partly influenced by El Niño. Scientists say that influence could increase in the future.
The new data indicates two possible future scenarios, Dr Semmler said. One is a strengthening El Niño – leading to cold, calm dry winters, with a greater influence of continental weather.
The other possibility is a stronger La Niña – causing stormier, wetter and milder winters, with Atlantic weather a bigger factor.
It’s very difficult to turn it back to the regime of weaker differences
The new research also indicates that El Niño changes might result in a global climate “tipping point”.
Dr Semmler said: “In the context of El Niño and La Niña, it’s very difficult, if not impossible, to turn it back to the regime of weaker differences.”
Ireland must introduce adaptive measures, said Dr Semmler, including stronger coastal and river flooding defences against rainfall and storms, as well as better drainage systems.
But there’s no immediate panic – with predictions this could start happening in the second half of the century.
Meanwhile, there was severe flooding in parts of Northern Ireland yesterday after hours of heavy rainfall.
Some Newcastle, Co Down, residents have been unable to leave their homes after a deluge. Locals said it is the worst flooding they have seen in 40 years.
There’s no sign of a storm but there will be spells of wet and blustery weather
One said three days’ worth of rain had fallen in a matter of hours. Ireland is set for “unsettled weather,” this week, according to Met Éireann meteorologist Aoife Kealy.
Ms Kealy said: “There’s no sign of a storm but there will be spells of wet and blustery weather. Low pressure will stay in charge for the next week or so. That basically means we’ll have showers and longer spells of rain today.”
Flooding on Sunningdale Drive off the Tullybrannigan Road in Newcastle, Co Down. Photo: Declan Roughan / Press Eye
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There is also the possibility of more showers tomorrow, while more wet weather is expected for the rest of the week.
“It might be a bit breezy as well but there’s nothing in the models to indicate it will be a storm,” Ms Kealy said.
“As we move to Friday and next weekend, it will stay unsettled and a bit cooler, with a few possible showers around.”
Storm Bram – named after Bram Stoker, the 19th century Dublin author behind Dracula – has been making headlines but so far it’s swerving Ireland, Met Éireann said.
However, Britain is facing 112kmh winds and snow, with -6C temperatures forecast ahead of Halloween.