Greek islands need €35 B ($44B) over a decade to modernize transport, energy, water. Credit: Greek Reporter
Greek islands will require approximately €35 billion (US $44 billion) in investments over the next ten years, according to a new study by the Economic Analysis Division of the National Bank of Greece. The funding aims to modernize key sectors — transport, energy, water, and waste management — that are vital for long-term resilience and competitiveness.
Maintaining the islands’ global appeal demands more than financial resources: it requires a modern, coordinated governance framework capable of setting priorities, allocating funds predictably, and turning plans into tangible, functional infrastructure. The ability to deliver on these fronts will determine whether the islands’ current success will be undermined by outdated systems or evolve into a strategic advantage, positioning them among the world’s most sustainable and desirable destinations.
Tourism Growth and Mounting Pressures
Greece’s islands have seen their tourist arrivals double over the past 15 years, reaching about 16 million visitors in 2024. They now account for 11 percent of global island tourism, with seven Greek islands ranked among the world’s top 30 destinations — alongside global icons like Bali and Hawaii.
Yet this remarkable growth brings significant strain. During peak summer months, visitor density soars to 33 people per km² per day, compared with just 2–3 elsewhere in Greece and the Mediterranean. Despite these extreme seasonal fluctuations, infrastructure investment per capita has remained roughly equal to that of the mainland over the past two decades — even though islands face unique challenges.
During high season, populations rise by an average of 50 percent, and in some islands more than double, creating intense pressure on local utilities, transportation, and waste systems. By contrast, on the mainland even tourism hotspots like Halkidiki experience only a 50 percent increase at most, while the national average is closer to 5 percent.
Moreover, island infrastructure costs are about 15 percent higher due to logistics constraints, limited economies of scale, and the need for redundancy in remote areas. Without targeted upgrades, these pressures threaten to cap future tourism growth and undermine the visitor experience.
The Investment Equation: €3.5 B ($4 B) per year
According to the National Bank of Greece, current infrastructure investment in the islands totals roughly €2 billion ($2.3 billion) per year, primarily in transport, energy, and water projects.
To meet future needs, this must be supplemented by:
≈ €1 billion ($1.161 billion) annually to accommodate the seasonal 50% population increase, and
≈ €0.5 billion ($0.58 billion) to cover additional island-specific costs.
In total, the required annual investment rises to €3.5 billion ($4 billion) — or €35 billion ($44 billion) through 2035. This level of funding is essential to sustain demand, protect environmental capacity, and strengthen the productive foundations of island economies.
Turning global trends into opportunity
Emerging travel trends offer a unique window for Greece to turn investment into competitive advantage. Demand from long-haul, high-spending markets — notably the US and Asia — is rising, while travelers increasingly seek authentic, less-crowded destinations and off-season experiences.
If the Greek islands capitalize on these shifts, they could raise spending per visitor by around 15 percent by 2035 and reduce the July-August arrival share from 42 percent to 34 percent. This strategic pivot from volume to value would enhance profitability while reducing seasonal stress on infrastructure and ecosystems.
Building a sustainable financing model
To seize this moment, a stable and predictable financing mix is essential.
1. Own Resources: Island municipalities already collect around €0.4 billion (≈ US $0.46 billion) annually from accommodation and cruise fees — almost half the funding needed to offset seasonal population pressure. Institutionalizing full cost recovery (“ring-fencing”) would ensure these revenues are reinvested locally in critical infrastructure.
2. Private Capital: Further investment could come through public-private partnerships (PPPs) and concession agreements that leverage private expertise and efficiency.
3. European and International Funds: Grants from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) and the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF), combined with low-interest loans from the European Investment Bank (EIB), can provide additional support.
Yet the National Bank of Greece warns that the barrier is not only financial. Fragmented responsibilities among ministries, regions and municipalities delay projects and impede prioritization. Three-quarters of island municipalities lack technical departments, leaving many projects stuck at the design stage.
A unified infrastructure authority for the islands
To overcome these obstacles, the report proposes establishing a National Infrastructure Authority for Islands as a central hub for strategic planning, resource allocation and project execution.
Such an authority would:
- Distribute funds predictably and transparently,
- Prioritize projects based on objective data and national-local alignment, and
- Accelerate delivery through digital fast-track permitting systems.
For maximum impact, this authority should be supported by two complementary pillars:
- A Special Spatial Planning Framework for tourism to provide the institutional basis for integrated development plans across the islands, linking them to infrastructure priorities.
- A Technical Support and Monitoring Mechanism, including centralized project maturation, inter-municipal engineering clusters and performance indicators.
Successful models in the Balearic Islands and the Azores demonstrate that integrating these three components into a cohesive “institutional triangle” greatly enhances efficiency and accelerates implementation. Applying this framework to Greece could make its islands a benchmark for sustainable tourism development nationwide.
Measurable impact: Growth and resilience
Infrastructure investment is the decisive factor for the next decade. Without a strategic shift, today’s success may reach its limits under the strain of aging infrastructure.
A coordinated “institutional triangle” of planning, governance and execution can ensure that investments target real needs and generate maximum impact. At the same time, business initiatives — such as upgrading accommodations and forging local partnerships — can amplify value and strengthen destination appeal.
The potential results are significant: within ten years, tourism revenues could grow by ≈ 45 percent, adding around €5 billion ($5.807 billion), while GDP could rise from €24 billion ($27 billion) to €30 billion ($34 billion), driving jobs and exports.
By transforming its infrastructure and governance model, Greece can secure its place at the pinnacle of global island tourism — not through sheer numbers of arrivals, but through its capacity to manage success sustainably and convert it into lasting prosperity.