Football betting tips: El Clasico

2pts Lamine Yamal 1+ shot on target from outside the box at evens (bet365)

1.5pts Arda Guler to score or assist at 8/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Kick-off: 15:15 GMT, SundayTV: Premier Sports 1

El Clasico‘s are as big as football matches get. The history, the bitterness, the bragging rights.

But, the importance has gone up a level in recent years given the gulf between Real Madrid and Barcelona compared to the rest of La Liga.

The two Clasico’s now nearly always determine who wins the title, with the two Spanish giants making light work of the rest of the division.

Barca did the double last year and won the title. Real did the double the season before and won the title. So, whoever comes out on top here will be favourite to win the title.

The reigning champs, Barca, are missing a host of key players for this, and their manager Hansi Flick won’t be on the touchline either, while Real are nearly fully-fit, still missing their right-back options but unscathed otherwise.

That explains why Los Blancos are nearly even-money to win the game, and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing them, but a word of warning – these games have descended into chaos in recent years with an enormous amount of goals, which increases the likelihood of any sort of result.

Last season saw a 4-3, 2-2, 5-2 and 4-0, with Barca winning the three games and the season before we saw a 3-2, 4-1 and 3-0, all won by Madrid. That’s a goal average of 5.0…

So, goals are likely on the menu again, but Over 3.5 goals is a 4/5 shot which looks plenty short enough.

Chance creator-in-chief

That leads us to the player markets, and with goals likely, I can’t resist the 8/5 about ARDA GULER TO SCORE OR ASSIST. The Turkish playmaker has nailed down a starting berth for Los Blancos thanks to impressive performances ever since Xabi Alonso took charge, and his output has been very strong.

He’s produced 16 goal involvements in his last 22 games for club and country, a truly elite record, and in La Liga this season has scored three and assisted a further four at an average of 1.05 goal involvements per 90.

While he’s over-performing somewhat, his xGI per 90 of 0.71 is still excellent, and suggests he will get a couple of decent chances to score as well as set up a couple in this one.

From down-town

LAMINE YAMAL is priced at 4/9 to have 2+ shots from outside the box and 7/4 for 3+ so that tells us that the bookies have him in for roughly 2.5 shots from range.

The chance of him registering 1+ SHOT ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX is priced at evens (50% implied probability) and I’ll happily advise that as a selection.

Yamal’s shot map highlights perfectly what he does when he gets the ball. He cuts in and shoots. I mean, he obviously does other stuff too like get to the by-line and create, but when he has his mind set on shooting, all of his attempts come from a similar area.

In fact, 15 of his 26 shots this season have come from outside the box (58%), hitting the target with six of those, with that 75% of his total shots on target.

He’ll be Barca’s biggest threat on Sunday, and you can bet the Catalonians will feed him the ball at every opportunity.

Odds correct at 1610 BST (24/10/25)

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