The 2026 Economy: ‘A Horse Running Through Fire’

Saengchai Teerakulvanich, Chief Strategy Officer of the Federation Thai SME, told that the Thai economy at the end of 2025 and into 2026 remains under pressure, particularly from the severe southern floods, which affected 9 provinces, 101 districts, and more than 280,000 SMEs.

External pressures include the “Trump 2.0” tariff regime, which further impacts exports, and tourism numbers that have yet to fully recover.

In 2026, Thailand must navigate multiple risks—global economic conditions, natural disasters, and technological competition. Saengchai highlighted “the debt trap”, particularly household and NPL debt, as a major challenge requiring urgent attention.

He emphasised the need to upskill the workforce—especially in digital, AI, innovation, and creativity—to enhance competitiveness. Thailand’s quarterly GDP growth remains the lowest in ASEAN at 1.2–3.3%, trailing Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Singapore.

Another essential priority is disaster preparedness, including water-management strategies, storm and tsunami response, and protective infrastructure.

AI and innovation will become both opportunities and obstacles; without adaptation, they may hinder SME and labour competitiveness.

For 2026, Saengchai expects GDP to grow 2–2.2%, supported by government stimulus and clearer investment promotion measures despite flood damage.

He said 2026 will be a ‘A Horse Running Through Fire’ —full of opportunities and challenges. Thailand must focus on four essential pillars:

  • Clear national strategy for integrated development

  • Differentiated economic strategy to raise household income and reduce debt

  • Leadership, from government, private sector, and citizens, to drive transformation

  • Governance, including anti-corruption and state efficiency improvements

On political volatility, Saengchai said this is normal for Thailand—but as long as the country remains under a constitutional monarchy and private-sector voices are respected, he still sees positive opportunities in 2026.


Key Priorities for 2026

  • Solve the systemic debt trap and ensure effective measures

  • Upskill–reskill the workforce to stay competitive

  • Accelerate access to technology and innovation to boost economic value

  • Advance ESG seriously and help SMEs access global markets

  • Address informal economy and grey capital to reduce long-term economic damage

“If Thailand establishes clear strategies on technology, leadership, and governance, the country can turn challenges into opportunities and achieve sustainable GDP growth,” Saengchai concluded.