So yes, AI is a major fear factor for the US economy. Curiously, 50% of our audience thought the US would grow more slowly in 2026 than in 2025.

But geopolitics is a bigger flashpoint. 37% said that was the biggest risk next year. And remember – risks can be good and bad.

One of the major questions for the end of the year and start of 2026 is whether a peace deal can be agreed between Russia and Ukraine. For the economy, a lot depends on how long-lasting it’s perceived to be. And the extent to which the trickier topics – such as territorial recognition – are addressed. For energy markets, much depends on sanctions. Warren Patterson argues that if US sanctions prove more effective than currently thought, it would be a key upside risk to oil prices in 2026.

That matters for inflation, which only 11% of people thought was the biggest risk next year. We, too, think inflation is more likely to fall next year, for largely cyclical reasons. But it’s something we’re watching.

I floated a scenario a couple of weeks back whereby a combination of so-called tariff rebate checks to Americans, coupled with lower tariffs, a more structurally dovish Fed committee and a supply-constrained global economy could conceivably trigger an inflation resurgence in the latter part of 2026. We’ve long argued that inflation is likely to remain higher and more volatile over the coming years.

The list goes on. Trade wars, budget blow-ups, labour market collapses. There are plenty of ways 2026 could go pear-shaped.

But here’s the thing. In the face of all the chaos the world – and a particular big white building in Washington – has thrown at it, the global economy has stayed remarkably resilient through 2025. Full-year growth looks likely to come in almost exactly where we predicted it would be twelve months ago for the likes of the US and Europe. That, I would not have expected, given everything that’s unfolded over the past few months.

So will this disconnect between geopolitics – which we agree will be the dominant theme again in 2026 – and the global economy continue? We think it probably will.

For more, do check out our full global outlook – hot off the press this week. It’s an excellent stocking-filler, by the way, if, like me, you’ve failed to buy a single Christmas present yet.

Sorry Mrs Smith, no new coffee machine for you…