Unlike the United States, where the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) – aka the Digital Dollar – faces a concerted legislative pushback, the European Union is pushing ahead with its Digital Euro project, which paints a bleak picture for Apple Pay within the bloc.

The Digital Euro could severely diminish the role of Visa/Mastercard as well as Apple Pay and Google Pay in processing payments within the EU

According to the ECB, “international card schemes accounted for approximately 61% of euro area card transactions in 2022.” What’s more, 13 out of the 20 countries in the Euro system do not have a domestic payment card scheme.

At a time when the US is threatening to annex Greenland, a self-governing territory of the Kingdom of Denmark that is not a part of the European Union but retains a special status as a recognized Overseas Country and Territory (OCT), the EU deems its Digital Euro project as a matter of bloc-wide sovereignty, which would wean it off the US-based Visa/Mastercard as well as Apple Pay and Google Pay.

Under the emerging architecture, the Digital Euro will be stored within dedicated digital wallets as unprogrammable money but with set transaction limits. Euro area citizens will be able to use the Digital Euro to shop online, purchase goods and services at physical stores, and make peer-to-peer payments. Critically, unlike Visa/Mastercard, Apple Pay, and Google Pay, the Digital Euro will incur no transaction fee, making its rapid adoption virtually guaranteed.

Meanwhile, the EU is systematically dismantling Apple’s legendary services moat within the bloc. Apple was recently classified as a “gatekeeper” for surpassing the minimum user thresholds delineated within the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) and for retaining a monopoly over its App Store. 

The EU has also bestowed a gatekeeper status on Apple’s iOS and iPadOS. Under the ensuing remedies, the EU has forced Apple to allow third-party app stores on its devices.

Also, under concerted pressure, Apple modified the terms for app developers in the EU in March 2024, allowing those who enrolled in the modified program to pay a lower percentage of their overall app-derived revenue to Apple.

Apple is also on the hook for hundreds of millions of dollars in an ongoing antitrust case in a Dutch court, where two Dutch consumer foundations – Right to Consumer Justice and ‌App Store‌ Claims – have accused the tech giant of abusing its dominant position to charge third-party app developers excessive fees, to the tune of 30 percent.

Switzerland, which is not part of the EU, has also opened an antitrust investigation against Apple Pay via its Secretariat of the Swiss Competition Commission.





Against this backdrop, Apple Pay might be relegated to irrelevance once the Digital Euro formally launches, chipping away at one of the most lucrative pillars of Apple’s ecosystem moat. Do note that the ECB is currently targeting 2029 as the tentative launch year for its ambitious Digital Euro project.

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