In early December the government and the NHS were issuing dire warnings about super flu, an unprecedented flu wave, and the NHS facing its worst winter since the heights of Covid. Along with many other people watching the data, I couldn’t see where these warnings were coming from. Yes, flu season had started early but there was nothing to say – at that time – that it would be worse than previous years.
I wrote about it in a December substack post and spoke about it on Sky News. I was worried that this was a bad use of data to scare the public – and striking doctors – into specific actions.
A month later, and it’s clear that this was not a worse flu year than previous years. Flu admissions peaked in mid December. While the most recent hopsital admission data (to 29 December) shows a small increase in hospitalisations, we are nowhere near 2022 or 2024’s peaks, or (so far) overall numbers, even if we get a double peak like we had in 2023/24.
Meanwhile, RSV admissions steady but relatively high, and Covid admissions are low and steady.
If the government and NHS messaging was about trying to change the public’s behaviour (and behaviour might have changed), then I don’t think the approach is justified. Getting the public to get to a behaviour through misleading presentation of data from the people and organisations who are meant to be trusted experts is counterproductive and wrong. It’s also lazy when you should make the effort to improve the situation through well-established public health measures. This includes improving physical infrastructure such as better ventilation (particularly in health care, school and crowded indoor settings), improving provision (better resourced GPs and hospitals), and better public messaging (e.g. emphasising ventilation and mask wearing alongside hand washing and surface cleaning, or staying home when sick).
If the government and NHS messaging was about pressuring the doctors to call off the strike, then I find that cynical and unethical. Whatever your views on whether the doctors’ strike was justified, you don’t tackle a labour dispute through misrepresenting public health data and scaring people.
There is no doubt that we had a significant flu wave this year, that started early and made thousands of people feel terrible. But the government messaging did not help and only obscured the actual things the government could have been doing (and in fact have been doing in terms of increased NHS resources) to support the NHS this winter and the coming winters.