Champions Cup
Leinster v La Rochelle, Aviva Stadium, 5.30pm (Premier Sports)
No less than in politics, a week can be a long time in rugby. This time a week ago, Leinster would have been the warmest of favourites to make it four successive wins over La Rochelle, but much has changed since then. Hence, the odds have been steadily narrowing for this most intense of modern-day Champions Cup rivalries with each passing day. And with good reason.
First and foremost, Leinster are suddenly a little thin in the propping department. Having already lost Tadhg Furlong (head), Rabah Slimani (calf) and Jack Boyle (shoulder), Andrew Porter pulled up with a calf “niggle” in training on Thursday, which was being assessed on Friday.
Leo Cullen can still field a frontrow of Paddy McCarthy, Dan Sheehan and Thomas Clarkson in an all-international pack, but props Jerry Cahir – signed on a short-term deal last September – and 21-year-old academy tighthead Andrew Sparrow are in line for their Champions Cup debuts after two and three United Rugby Championship appearances to date.
Joshua Kenny will also make his Champions Cup debut from the off in place of the injured James Lowe, although after six tries in four starts, the pacy ex-sevens winger already looks a real find. Indeed, it would be no surprise to see him make Andy Farrell’s Six Nations squad.
There is positive news in the return of Robbie Henshaw, who partners Rieko Ioane in the continuing absence of Garry Ringrose. Cullen indicated that Ringrose and RG Snyman are on course to return for next week’s pool finale in Bayonne.
With Jamie Osborne, Ryan Baird, Jordan Larmour and Jimmy O’Brien longer-term absentees, Hugo Keenan has resumed light training after his hip injury and will require “a few weeks” to recover fully, making him touch-and-go for Ireland’s Six Nations opener against France in Paris on Thursday, February 5th.
Leinster’s Joe McCarthy tackles Will Skelton of La Rochelle during the teams’ Champions Cup round-one match at Stade Marcel Deflandre in 2023. Photograph: Dan Sheridan/Inpho
Against all of that, La Rochelle head coach Ronan O’Gara can welcome back his talisman and Leinster’s kryptonite, Big Bad Will Skelton, after his try-scoring cameo off the bench in last week’s 66-0 win over a weakened Toulon. Reda Wardi and Ihaia West have also been recalled.
Their brilliant centre UJ Seuteni is the other absentee from last week after becoming ill on Thursday. They are also missing influential hooker Pierre Bourgarit, backrowers Judicaël Cancoriet, Paul Boudehent and Matthias Haddad, as well as centres Jonathan Danty and Semi Lagivala. Yet they can still field a backrow of Oscar Jégou, Grégory Alldritt and Levani Botia.
Botia, the 36-year-old Fijian legend, looks as sharp as ever and scored his fifth try of the Top 14 campaign last week despite being used judiciously by O’Gara this season.
“They have a huge amount of quality in their group and if you put our lads beside them it would be similar,” said Cullen ahead of one of the weekend’s badly needed heavyweight clashes, for which over 40,000 tickets have been sold.
“That’s what I think the public want to see. I believe there’s a good crowd of La Rochelle fans in town already, which is, again, what the tournament needs as well. Two teams going at it for all the right reasons.”
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A relatively strong La Rochelle took a 60-14 beating in Toulouse a fortnight ago but Cullen feels they will still “go back to type, which is around lineout drive in particular – that’s where they will try to take us on again”.
He also noted how La Rochelle are “very aggressive at the ball” and pointed to the threat of those loose forwards, but stressed that Leinster should be excited by this challenge.
Leinster head coach Leo Cullen acknowledges Saturday’s Champions Cup group match against La Rochelle at the Aviva Stadium will ask much of his injury-weakened team. Photograph: Charles McQuillan/Getty Images
“Don’t let it pass us by is probably the big thing, isn’t it. Really savour these days,” said Cullen. “It’s not a knockout game but it definitely has that type of feel. La Rochelle already sent a rotational team to South Africa. So, if they’ve already lost a game, we know they’ll be desperate.”
As an aside, he confirmed that Leinster are having conversations with Joey Carbery in seeking to bring him home, while Cullen still harbours frustration and annoyance over the manner his former outhalf was encouraged to move to Munster in 2018.
“I don’t think it’s a great secret I wasn’t a big fan of how that played out at the time and I wouldn’t have blamed Joey in any sense.” Cullen added with a smile: “But some of the people who were involved there, I don’t think covered themselves in glory, did they?”
Ciarán Frawley continues to fill in at fullback but Leinster’s list of players deemed hors de combat has left their bench looking more callow than La Rochelle. A tad unnervingly for Leinster fans too, Matthew Carley is back at the Aviva Stadium for the first time since refereeing the Ireland-South Africa game last November.
Unsurprisingly, O’Gara has clearly targeted this game. After all, as well as being something of a grudge fixture for the La Rochelle players after three successive losses against the team they previously beat in the finals of 2022 and 2023, any meeting with Leinster will always be writ large in O’Gara’s diary regardless.
They also carry a grudge over their round-two defeat taking place in Port Elizabeth, the Stormers’ alternative “home” ground to Cape Town, and an additional flight over 1,000km away. That was no way to treat any club, let alone two-time champions.
Leinster have, remarkably, won their last 29 pool matches in the Champions Cup, but though their odds have been trimmed from the high teens to 11-point favourites, this has a stronger whiff of danger than the vast majority of those games.
Leinster: Ciarán Frawley; Tommy O’Brien, Rieko Ioane, Robbie Henshaw, Joshua Kenny; Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park; Paddy McCarthy, Dan Sheehan, Tom Clarkson, Joe McCarthy, James Ryan, Jack Conan, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt). Replacements: Ronan Kelleher, Jerry Cahir, Andrew Sparrow, Diarmuid Mangan, Max Deegan, Luke McGrath, Harry Byrne, Andrew Osborne.
Stade Rochelais: Dillyn Leyds; Jack Nowell, Jules Favre, Simeli Daunivucu, Davit Niniashvili; Ihaia West, Nolann le Garrec; Reda Wardi, Tolu Latu, Uini Atonio, Charles Kante Samba, Will Skelton, Oscar Jegou, Levani Botia, Grégory Alldritt (capt). Replacements: Quentin Lespiaucq, Louis Penverne, Aleksandre Kuntelia, Kane Douglas, Kirill Fraindt, Thomas Berjon, Antoine Hastoy, Nathan Bollengier.
Referee: Matthew Carley (England)
Forecast: Leinster, maybe, to win a one-score game.