Winter sun flights to US from Canada slashed as tourists shun Trump

The shift equates to 5,000 aircraft seats a day switching from the US to other destinations

Traditionally, millions of “snowbirds” seek to escape the bitter Canadian winter by flying south. California, Nevada and Florida have long been favoured destinations. But new figures from analysts OAG show that in the first three months of 2026, seat capacity from Canada to the US is down by 10pc.

Instead, more Canadians seeking warmth are heading for Cuba (up 1.2pc), Mexico (up 5.1pc) and Costa Rica (up 14.5pc).

The shift equates to 5,000 aircraft seats a day switching from the US to other destinations. The worst-hit American cities are Las Vegas (82,000 fewer seats over the three months) and Orlando (a decrease of 79,000).

All other US gateways, including Fort Lauderdale, Los Angeles and New York Newark, have seen a decline.

Since beginning his second term, Donald Trump has been highly critical of America’s northern neighbour. On Tuesday he dismissed the trade pact between the US, Canada and Mexico as “irrelevant”.

Air Canada has stepped up capacity to Cancún in Mexico by 20pc, and has added services to San Juan del Cabo at the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula.

The Calgary-based carrier WestJet has launched new routes to Samana and La Romana in the Dominican Republic.

OAG analyst John Grant said: “Has the US perhaps lost one of its most valuable winter markets to other destinations? Certainly, the product offering in the Caribbean is very competitively priced, and the quality of accommodation is always improving, while hotel rates in the US continue to appear expensive to many international travellers.

“Should this year’s ‘snowbirds’ find their new experiences positive and remain willing to accept additional flight hours, the travel trends observed in the first quarter of 2026 may signal a lasting shift in travel patterns and, notably, in spending habits among a traditionally affluent demographic seeking warmth and sunshine.

“If so, the resulting effects on relevant US markets could persist well into the future.”

The latest official figures show that 3.7pc fewer visitors from Western Europe travelled to the US in 2025 compared with the previous year, although Irish visitor numbers remained relatively flat.

End-of-year statistics for Canada are not available, but in the first nine months of 2025, Canadian visitor numbers were 22pc down year-on-year.