Oscar snubs are inevitable every year. No matter how competitive the field looks heading into nominations morning, there are always a few contenders that seem safe — until they aren’t.
With Oscar nominations set to be announced on Thursday, Gold Derby’s odds paint a picture that’s far less settled than it may appear on the surface. While everyone’s definition of a “snub” may differ, we’re basing this list strictly on the data — and which films and performances appear most vulnerable based on recent movement in the odds.
Several contenders still technically sit inside the predicted lineup in major categories, but shifting rankings suggest that some of this season’s most talked-about titles are shakier than expected — and could be at real risk of being left out when the names are called.
Based on Gold Derby’s current odds, here are seven contenders and categories where a surprise snub may be brewing.
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Wicked: For Good: At risk of an above-the-line shutout
Image Credit: Giles Keyte/UniversalOnce viewed as an across-the-board heavyweight, Wicked: For Good has quietly slipped into dangerous territory.
The film now sits at 11th in the Best Picture odds, placing it just outside the projected 10 nominees. But the real alarm bells are ringing in the acting categories: Cynthia Erivo has slid to eighth in Best Actress, while Ariana Grande is barely clinging to the fifth spot in Supporting Actress.
With Odessa A’zion (Marty Supreme) and Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) surging in the final stretch, the Wicked bubble looks ready to burst. If Wicked: For Good falters in one category, it could quickly unravel across the board — turning what once appeared to be a safe Oscar presence into one of the biggest surprises of the morning.
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Best Actress: Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) and Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Image Credit: Warner Bros.; Focus FeaturesThe Best Actress race is often where the Academy’s old guard sentiments clash with new blood, and this year, two heavyweights find themselves on shaky ground.
Chase Infiniti remains in the thick of the race for One Battle After Another, but her position is far from secure. This is Infiniti’s first-ever major film role — a breakout star-is-born moment that has captivated critics but may lack the deep-rooted industry connections needed to withstand a late-season surge. She is currently facing a massive push from veteran Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), who is mounting an aggressive, high-profile campaign for her first nomination in 25 years. Hudson has leaned heavily into the familiarity factor, with Q&As and screenings hosted by Hollywood royalty (and Academy members) like Demi Moore, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and Hudson’s own mother, Goldie Hawn.
Meanwhile, even a titan like Emma Stone may be more vulnerable than she appears for Bugonia. Stone is undeniably an Academy darling, but having already collected two Best Actress trophies for La La Land and Poor Things, she may be hitting a “winner’s fatigue” ceiling. The Academy may think it’s “too soon” for a third win — especially when compared to overdue veterans like Hudson or fresh, undeniable discoveries like Infiniti. In a category this crowded, the acting branch might decide that Stone’s mantle is full enough for now.
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Best Actor: Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
Image Credit: Sony Pictures Classics/Courtesy Everett CollectionEthan Hawke’s acclaimed turn in Blue Moon has kept him in the Best Actor mix throughout the season, but his position is beginning to look increasingly fragile.
He could be overtaken by Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), who joined Hawke as a nominee at the Actor Awards — a group that notably excluded likely Oscar nominee Wagner Moura for his performance in Brazil’s The Secret Agent. Plemons also benefits from appearing in a more widely seen and broadly supported awards player.
Meanwhile, Joel Edgerton has emerged as a legitimate dark horse for Train Dreams, a performance that could resonate strongly with Academy voters, particularly if the film breaks into the Best Picture lineup.
With multiple challengers gaining momentum at once, Hawke may be the easiest name for voters to quietly leave off their ballots.
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Park Chan-wook: No Other Choice
Image Credit: NeonIt once seemed inevitable that Park Chan-wook would finally earn his first Oscar nomination following the painful snub of Decision to Leave. Now, that certainty is fading.
No Other Choice has slipped to sixth place in Best Adapted Screenplay, putting it just outside the projected five. But the real concern is in Best International Feature, where Park is hovering in a precarious fourth place. He is currently trailing a top three that feels increasingly immovable: the Golden Globe-winning The Secret Agent (Brazil), the European Film Award-sweeper Sentimental Value (Norway), and the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident (France).
The pressure from below is just as intense. Momentum is surging for Sirât (Spain) following its massive five-win night at the EFAs, while The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) continues to gain visibility through a high-profile campaign bolstered by executive producers like Spike Lee, Brad Pitt, and Joaquin Phoenix. If the “prestige” vote splits between these heavy-hitters, Park — one of the world’s most admired directors — could once again find himself the odd man out on nomination morning.
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Best Picture: International contenders in danger
Image Credit: NeonThe Producers Guild of America once again demonstrated how unpredictable the Best Picture race can be. By nominating the high-octane F1 and the horror-sensation Weapons, the PGA reminded voters that populist, box-office-driven titles can still muscle their way into the top 10.
But when “popcorn movies” crash the party, something has to give.
The most vulnerable contenders are the international features hovering near the bottom of Gold Derby’s projected Best Picture lineup. These titles — specifically Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, and It Was Just an Accident — rely on a “passion vote” from the Academy’s growing international branch. If that enthusiasm is divided among three different non-English films, they risk cancelling each other out just as consensus builds behind the broader studio hits.
Sentimental Value currently has the strongest footing after its EFA sweep and PGA bid, but the Producers Guild notably snubbed both The Secret Agent and It Was Just an Accident. Even though the Academy often leans more toward “prestige” than the PGA, these omissions are a warning that industry-wide consensus is fracturing. This lack of broad support could leave one or two of these acclaimed gems standing outside the gates on Jan. 22.
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Best Visual Effects: Frankenstein
Image Credit: NetflixOn paper, Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein appears safe, currently ranking third in Gold Derby’s odds. However, a glaring red flag emerged this month: the film was completely shut out by the Visual Effects Society (VES) Awards.
Historically, a VES omission is a significant indicator of a lack of branch support. Del Toro’s philosophy for the film was to provide “eye protein” — real sets with real light — rather than the “eye candy” of a green-screen void. By constructing massive laboratory sets and using miniatures for the film’s most explosive sequences, del Toro ensured his actors had a physical reality to react to.
However, that craftsmanship creates a unique hurdle at the Oscars. If the branch decides to credit the film’s look primarily to the production design and makeup categories, Frankenstein could be leapfrogged by pure technical spectacles like The Lost Bus or Jurassic World: Rebirth (which did get VES bids).
It is not uncommon for the VFX branch to go its own way; history is full of “lone wolf” nominees like 2023 winner Godzilla Minus One, which won the Oscar despite having no other nominations. Just last year, Alien: Romulus, Better Man, and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes all secured nominations as their films’ sole representatives. If voters prioritize digital innovation over del Toro’s vision, Frankenstein could find itself the odd man out.
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Best Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor
Image Credit: NetflixThe Perfect Neighbor has emerged as one of the most talked-about documentary contenders of the season — and that visibility could ironically be its downfall.
The film recently won the top prize at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, but history suggests that win might actually be a kiss of death. Over the last nine years, the Critics Choice winner for Best Documentary Feature has been snubbed by the Academy an astonishing seven times. High-profile “locks” like Will & Harper and Super/Man (2024), Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (2023), Good Night Oppy (2022), Dick Johnson is Dead (2020), Apollo 11 (2019), Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (2018), and Jane (2017) all took home the top Critics Choice prize only to be left out on Oscar nomination morning.
In fact, since 2016, only two Critics Choice winners — O.J.: Made in America and Summer of Soul — have managed to secure an Oscar nomination. The documentary branch has a long-standing tendency to resist consensus favorites, often eliminating the perceived front-runner to prevent a runaway winner. If voters decide the Netflix film feels too dominant or “too popular,” The Perfect Neighbor could become the latest victim of the category’s most notorious trend.