If we assume the calculation is even remotely close to the actual number, the question immediately becomes whether CDPR will actually be able to recoup the cost and make a profit from the game, or if, ten years from now, we’ll be describing The Witcher 4’s budget as “reckless spending on CD Projekt’s part.”
On one hand, the success of The Witcher 3 and Cyberpunk 2077, as well as CDPR essentially replacing Bethesda as the Go-To Developer of Janky Action-Adventures with RPG Mechanics That Are Far From Perfect But Will Keep You Hooked for Hundreds of Hours, all but ensures that the studio’s next title will sell well, no matter what they deliver.
On the other, factors like the team using a new engine for TW4, the story not being based on the original books, the team’s uncertainty over how to top The Witcher 3, and Ciri taking over as protagonist instead of Geralt do introduce risks and act as proverbial flies in the ointment, making the game’s success very likely but not guaranteed.
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