Capital markets reflect expectations.

Zhang Wei, The Investor

In 2025, the domestic aerospace industry witnessed a historic and milestone-level boom, driven by the ‘triple resonance’ of policy dividends, technological breakthroughs, and capital enthusiasm, accelerating the transition of the aerospace industry from a ‘national heavyweight’ to an era of ‘industrial consumer goods.’ Commercial spaceflight also became one of the most prominent themes in the capital market in 2025.

According to Wind data, the commercial spaceflight theme index (8841877.WI) experienced a strong upward trend in 2025, with cumulative gains exceeding 60%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period, making it one of the most explosive thematic indices in the A-share market. Meanwhile, within the SW secondary industry index, the Aerospace Equipment II sector surged nearly 150%, ranking first among all sectors in terms of gains, with trading volumes repeatedly breaking through 30 billion yuan, and several individual stocks rising over 300%.

On the side of companies preparing for IPOs, the targeted implementation of the fifth set of listing standards on the STAR Market has opened the door to capitalization for commercial spaceflight enterprises that are unprofitable but possess core technologies, making 2025 a ‘groundbreaking year’ for IPOs in China’s commercial spaceflight sector. Looking ahead, with the concentrated rollout of top-level policy designs, breakthrough progress in core technologies, and the simultaneous release of capital enthusiasm and industrial demand, the aerospace industry has established itself as a trillion-yuan-scale track.

China Merchants Securities believes that 2025 is the ‘breakthrough year’ for the commercialization of the aerospace industry, supported by multiple factors including policy, technology, and capital, enabling the industry to achieve a leap from zero to one. In terms of long-term development, however, China’s aerospace industry still faces challenges such as technological iteration breakthroughs, profit realization, and international competition.

Multiple guiding factors lead to the concentrated outbreak of the industry.

In 2025, the number of space launches hit a record high, low-orbit satellite internet construction entered the mass deployment phase, and the number of commercial spaceflight companies exceeded 600, with the industry scale surpassing 2.5 trillion yuan. Behind this series of growth lies the dual-engine drive of ‘low-orbit satellites + reusable rockets,’ shaping the super track of China’s aerospace industry.

Open Source Securities believes that the outbreak of the aerospace industry in 2025 is not an isolated breakthrough but rather a systematic resonance formed by policy support, technological efforts, and capital backing.

First, the ‘combination of policies’ laid a solid foundation for the industry’s explosion, forming a complete support system from top-level design to specific implementation. In the ’15th Five-Year Plan’ released in October 2025, aerospace was listed as a ‘strategic emerging industry cluster,’ establishing the strategy to ‘accelerate the construction of a space power,’ and incorporating commercial spaceflight into top-level design.

In November 2025, the establishment of the ‘Commercial Spaceflight Department’ marked a new phase of standardized development for China’s commercial spaceflight industry. At the same time, the National Space Administration issued the ‘National Space Administration Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Spaceflight (2025-2027),’ clarifying that by 2027, a high-quality commercial spaceflight industrial ecosystem will be basically formed.

Secondly, breakthroughs at the technical level have become a catalyst for industrial takeoff. In December 2025, the commercial aerospace sector witnessed the validation of two key technologies: the successful maiden orbital flights of ‘Zhuque-3,’ developed by LandSpace, and ‘Long March-12A,’ a reusable rocket model developed by the Eighth Academy of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. These achievements mark the entry of China’s reusable rocket technology into a substantive verification phase.

Finally, capital market support has provided a safeguard for the industry’s subsequent development. In December 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the ‘Guidance on the Application of Listing Review Rules No. 9 – The Application of the Fifth Set of STAR Market Listing Standards for Commercial Rocket Enterprises,’ which, for the first time, clarified a path for commercial rocket enterprises to go public. This addressed the core pain points of ‘difficulty in profitability and difficulty in listing’ previously faced by the commercial aerospace industry, opening up a key exit channel for related capital.

Data shows that as early as 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), together with multiple departments, issued the ‘Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for National Civil Space Infrastructure (2015–2025),’ which explicitly supported private capital participation in the construction of national civil space infrastructure for the first time. After a decade of accumulation, the commercial aerospace industry finally reached its peak moment in 2025.

Differentiation and Concerns Amid Sector Euphoria

In the secondary market, listed companies related to aerospace received unprecedented attention in 2025. The overall sector outperformed the market, with leading firms and niche players delivering outstanding performances, creating positive synergy between earnings and stock prices.

According to Wind data, several stocks in the aerospace sector posted remarkable gains in 2025. For instance, Feiwo Technology, Chaojie Shares, Aerospace Power, Aerospace Development, and China Satellite rose by 582%, 432%, 366%, 351%, and 248%, respectively. The share price increases were not solely driven by speculative concepts but were underpinned by actual orders and business activities.

Take Chaojie Shares as an example. As a core supplier of ‘Zhuque-3,’ the company provides structural components worth over 25 million yuan per rocket, accounting for approximately 25% of the total cost of the rocket. Chaojie Shares stated that its order volume from the commercial aerospace sector is expected to exceed 1.5 billion yuan in 2025, making this business a core driver of the company’s performance growth.

At the same time, the global capital linkage effect became more pronounced. In December 2025, SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, confirmed preparations for a potential IPO in 2026 and advanced internal share sales, valuing the company at 800 billion US dollars. This signal verified the commercial feasibility of commercial aerospace, becoming a key valuation anchor for the global commercial aerospace sector boom.

Notably, with the soaring popularity of commercial aerospace, some companies with ‘aerospace’ in their names but whose main businesses are unrelated to commercial aerospace were blindly speculated. Subsequently, these companies issued announcements clarifying their lack of association. Amidst the euphoria of the aerospace sector, the speculative chaos surrounding ‘pseudo-aerospace’ concept stocks became evident, drawing regulatory attention and triggering market corrections.

In December 2025, companies such as Aerospace Power, Aerospace Changfeng, Aerospace Engineering, and Aerospace Information successively issued announcements regarding abnormal share price fluctuations, clearly stating that they ‘do not engage in core commercial aerospace businesses’ and that ‘share price speculation is disconnected from fundamentals.’ Data shows that the ‘aerospace’ labels of these companies stem from their shareholder backgrounds rather than actual operations.

Moreover, some companies’ valuations are mismatched with their fundamentals, posing bubble risks. For instance, Shenjian Co., which once achieved ‘eight limit-up days in eight days,’ reported that commercial aerospace revenue accounted for less than 1% of its Q3 2025 revenue. Haozhi Electromechanical’s commercial aerospace revenue contributed only about 5%, and the company explicitly warned that this business had a limited impact on its performance, with valuation not aligned with fundamentals. As of January 2026, the price-to-earnings ratios of Shenjian Co. and Haozhi Electromechanical exceeded 100 times, far higher than the average valuation level of A-shares.

Analysts point out that, based on fundamental performance, there is significant divergence among companies in the aerospace sector. Except for leading firms in certain niche markets, most aerospace listed companies’ commercial space businesses remain at a small-scale delivery stage, and profitability realization will take time. There is a phenomenon where current stock prices have priced in future growth, and investors need to carefully distinguish between them.

Policy support drives IPOs of relevant companies.

Statistical data shows that by 2024, the market size of China’s commercial aerospace industry exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, and it is projected to surpass 3.5 trillion yuan by 2030, with an average annual compound growth rate of approximately 18%. The trillion-yuan market scale, combined with tailored regulatory policies for listings, has spurred demand for financing through capital markets among related companies.

In 2025, leading commercial aerospace enterprises intensified their IPO processes, creating a wave of efforts to access capital markets. This marks the domestic aerospace industry’s transition from ‘financing-driven’ to ‘capital realization.’

In July 2025, LandSpace initiated IPO tutoring and completed the tutoring acceptance in December. On December 31, 2025, the STAR Market IPO application of LandSpace was accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, just five days after the exchange released guidance for commercial rocket company listings, fully demonstrating policy support for aerospace industry financing.

It is understood that LandSpace is the first private rocket company in China to obtain full-process access qualifications. Its self-developed ‘Tianque’ series of liquid oxygen methane engines form a core technological barrier. On December 3, 2025, the successful maiden flight of ‘Zhuque-3,’ achieving precise orbital insertion of its second stage, allowed LandSpace to meet the key requirement of the STAR Market’s fifth standard: ‘successful first orbital insertion of a medium or large launch vehicle payload.’

Financial data reveals that from 2022 to June 30, 2025, LandSpace’s revenues were 782,900 yuan, 3,952,100 yuan, 4,278,300 yuan, and 36,431,900 yuan, respectively, while net profits were -821 million yuan, -1.216 billion yuan, -916 million yuan, and -635 million yuan, respectively. During this period, cumulative losses exceeded 3.5 billion yuan. Despite not yet turning profitable, LandSpace has gained recognition from the capital market due to its core technologies and commercial prospects.

Additionally, Zhongke Aerospace registered for IPO tutoring in August 2025. Its main product, ‘Lizhi-1,’ has successfully delivered 57 satellites into orbit. Galaxy Power completed IPO tutoring registration in October 2025. As the first private aerospace enterprise in China to achieve rocket mass production, the company has delivered 85 satellites into orbit cumulatively. Tianbing Technology completed IPO tutoring registration in October 2025, with its core product ‘Tianlong-3,’ a large reusable liquid oxygen methane launch vehicle. The company plans to apply for the STAR Market listing in the second quarter of 2026.

On the other hand, the synergistic effects within the industrial chain behind these IPO-bound companies are evident. The capitalization process of leading commercial aerospace enterprises not only benefits themselves but also boosts market attention for upstream and downstream participants, including suppliers and subsidiaries, offering opportunities for value reassessment of related listed companies.

Taking LandSpace as an example, Goldwind Technologies holds a 10% stake in the company, with both parties forming deep synergies in areas such as new energy supply, composite materials, and fuel supply. Sairui New Materials, as the exclusive supplier of key materials for LandSpace’s engines, is also its shareholder, with related orders exceeding 500 million yuan in 2024. Chaojie Co., Ltd., as a core structural component supplier for ‘Zhuque-3,’ serves multiple leading commercial aerospace enterprises such as Tianbing Technology and Zhongke Aerospace.

Dongwu Securities believes that these participating and supplier enterprises leverage the IPO progress of leading aerospace companies to realize secondary value mining of their businesses, becoming one of the key rationales for speculation in the aerospace sector in 2025. As commercial aerospace enterprises accelerate their IPO processes, the realization of performance expectations across upstream and downstream industrial chains will further strengthen, with enterprises possessing core supply capabilities expected to benefit continuously.

Will enter a new phase of high-quality development.

Zhongtai Securities mentioned that the commercial aerospace industry is entering a new period of rapid development, transitioning from ‘scale explosion’ to ‘high-quality development.’ However, it also faces multiple challenges such as intensified international competition, technological breakthrough pressures, and immature profit models. Industry development still needs to navigate through the ‘concept speculation’ haze and return to its commercial essence.

At the policy level, the ’15th Five-Year Plan’ lists aerospace as a strategic emerging industry cluster. The establishment of a commercial aerospace agency will promote standardized and routine industry regulation. The ‘China National Space Administration Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025-2027)’ outlines development goals for the next three years, with policy dividends continuing to be released.

At the technical level, reusable rocket technology will be the key competitive arena in the future. Progress in subsequent recovery tests for models such as ‘Zhuque-3’ and ‘Tianlong-3’ will directly determine the cost competitiveness of commercial aerospace enterprises. Additionally, satellite manufacturing trends toward miniaturization and lightweighting impose higher requirements on the localization rate of core components.

In terms of market demand, large-scale satellite internet constellation deployment will generate massive demand. Behind China’s application for an additional 203,000 satellites lies definitive growth opportunities across the entire industrial chain, including satellite manufacturing, rocket launches, and ground terminals. Meanwhile, emerging fields such as space-based solar power and space computing power are becoming new growth drivers, continuously expanding the boundaries of industry development.

Currently, global commercial aerospace competition has entered deeper waters. By the end of 2025, there will be approximately 12,000 satellites in orbit globally, with SpaceX occupying 66% of the share. In January this year, SpaceX was approved to launch an additional 7,500 Starlink satellites, bringing the total number of approved second-generation satellites to 15,000. Simultaneously, SpaceX’s Starship project has overcome the technical bottleneck of heavy-lift rocket recovery and reuse, intensifying the future international competition for low-orbit and spectrum resources.

Guojin Securities predicts that 2026 will be the ‘Alpha Year’ for China’s commercial aerospace industry, with the sector’s logic shifting from mere thematic mapping to fundamental investment based on supply chain performance realization. Technological iteration and international competition will become core variables driving industry development. The industry will gradually transition from single-point commercialization to a scalable and replicable closed-loop ecosystem, demonstrating mid-to-long-term growth resilience and potential. (Produced by Siwei Finance) ■