One day after the Oscar nominations, several contenders already appear to be on their way to easy wins, per the Gold Derby prediction data. (We’re looking at you, KPop Demon Hunters for Best Animated Feature.) But, notably, there are four races — including a red-hot acting contest — that are simply too close to call at this early stage.
With two months to go until Conan O’Brien hosts the 98th Academy Awards on March 15, it’s still anyone’s game in these four categories. Let’s dive in.
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actress
1.
Teyana Taylor
One Battle After Another
2.
3.
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Sentimental Value
4.
5.
Elle Fanning
Sentimental Value
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) won the Golden Globe. Amy Madigan (Weapons) took home the Critics Choice Award. And with the BAFTA Award and SAG’s Actor Award still to be determined, this race is ripe for an upset. Taylor has the edge with a 72 percent chance of winning, but Madigan, the only repeat nominee in this category having initially competed 40 years ago for Twice in a Lifetime, can’t be discounted at 20 percent.
Taylor and Madigan have similar, yet opposite hurdles to overcome at the Oscars. The former appars in only the first third of her film about revolutionaries, before she disappears from the screen. The latter emerges in the final third of her movie, where she plays a key role in the thriller about children who go missing. A win for either actress would prove that impact means more to voters than simple screen time.
The other three Best Supporting Actress nominees still have plenty of time to make up ground. Wunmi Mosaku cast her spell on Sinners, which made Oscar history with 16 bids; and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning hail from Sentimental Value, which received nine nominations. It’s possible Lilleaas and Fanning could split the vote (see our deep dive on vote-splitting), which would benefit Taylor, Madigan, or Mosaku on Oscar night.
Best Cinematography
Sinners’ Autumn Durald Arkapaw — the first woman of color nominated in this category and only the third woman D.P. to compete at the Oscars — currently leads the lensing race at 66 percent. But Train Dreams‘ Adolpho Veloso is chugging along with a 25 percent chance to win. While both films were heralded for their cinematography, the question is: will Oscar voters prefer the former’s noir-like atmosphere shot in large-screen format with vintage lenses, or the latter’s naturalistic and sweeping, yet intimate camera approach? (Train Dreams won Best Cinematography at the Critics Choice Awards, for what it’s worth.)
Ryan Coogler and Autumn Durald Arkapaw on the ‘Sinners’ setWarner Bros.
One Battle After Another’s Michael Bauman, Frankenstein’s Dan Laustsen, and Marty Supreme’s Darius Khondji complete the lineup. Arkapaw, Veloso, and Bauman are first-time nominees. Laustsen is on his third career bid after Nightmare Alley (2021) and The Shape of Water (2017). Khondji is also up for his third nom after Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (2022) and Evita (1996).
Best Film Editing
When predicting the Best Picture Oscar, Best Film Editing has proven to be a unique and pivotal bellwether. Almost every eventual Best Picture winner was also nominated for its editing, with CODA (2021) and Birdman (2014) being the only two modern-day exceptions. That bodes well for this year’s group of editing nominees, led by odds leaders Andy Jurgensen for One Battle After Another at 74 percent, and Stephen Mirrione for F1 at 19 percent.
One Battle After Another is full of tightly edited action sequences — including one memorable car chase on a hilly highway. F1 is a high-octane race car drama that relied on precision and experience in the editing room. Both films also make room for quieter character moments, including those with respective lead actors Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt.
Mirrione is an Oscar winner for Traffic (2000) and has two other bids under his belt for Babel (2006) and The Revenant (2015). Jurgensen is a first-time nominee, as are the other contenders in this category: Marty Supreme’s Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Sentimental Value’s Olivier Bugge Coutté, and Sinners’ Michael Shawver.
Best International Film
Of this year’s five nominees for Best International Film, Norway’s Sentimental Value has the most nominations with nine. Brazil’s The Secret Agent follows with four, France’s It Was Just an Accident and Spain’s Sirāt have two apiece, and Tunisia’s The Voice of Hind Rajab landed one. That is undoubtedly why Sentimental Value tops the current odds with 63 percent.
‘The Secret Agent’ and ‘Sentimental Value’Neon
However, last year, the nominations leader in this category was France’s Emilia Pérez with 13, and it lost the prize to three-time nominee I’m Still Here from Brazil. It was a true David vs. Goliath situation that could actually happen again this year — for the same country.
The Secret Agent is the runner-up in our predictions with a 34 percent chance of winning, and it’s been gaining awards momentum ever since it won two Golden Globes for Best Non-English Language Film and Best Drama Actor for Wagner Moura. Fun fact: if Brazil pulls off back-to-back wins in Best International Film, it would be the first time that’s happened since Denmark did it 37 years ago.