Following last night’s premiere in Washington D.C. attended by President Donald Trump and packed with his acolytes, the First Lady’s documentary Melania is on course to open to a better-than-expected $8 million or more at the North American box office, according to early Friday returns. That would mark the best opening in a decade or more for a documentary, no small feat in a post-COVID world where streamers have taken over the non-fiction space.

However, all bets are off when it comes to comparisons given the context around Melania, directed by the controversial filmmaker Brett Ratner in what he hopes marks his Hollywood comeback. For one, Amazon MGM Studios plunked down $40 million for worldwide licensing rights in a deal widely seen as a move to cozy up to the White House. Whatever the case, it makes Melania the most expensive doc in history.

And that’s before Amazon spent $35 million on the global marketing campaign for Melania, including $15 million in the U.S. A domestic theatrical campaign for even the biggest docs generally runs no more than $5 million to $7 million. There are exceptions, including former vice president Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth and Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11. Sources say the domestic marketing spend was close to $15 million on each of those titles because of the awards factor, not adjusted for inflation. Both picked up the Oscar for best picture.

Heading into the weekend, Melania was tracking to open in the $5 million range from 1,778 theaters, or enough to beat the $5 million debut of Angel Studios’ doc After Death from 2,645 theaters in 2023, according to Comscore.

Almost two decades later, Michael Moore’s Oscar-winning Fahrenheit 9/11 remains the top-grossing doc of all time among any genre, and not just political. It opened in 2024 to a record $23.9 million domestically from 868 theaters on its way to North American cume of $119.2 million and $222 million globally, not adjusted for inflation.

The decision to open Melania in more than 20 markets overseas, where Prime Video has a huge footprint, was a bold move, considering how controversial of a figure her husband is. He’s presently in a tussle with South Africa, where a distributor pulled Melania from release earlier this week. And there’s been a torrent of bad press coming out of Europe regarding empty theaters (just as in the U.S.). Of the total marketing pie, about $10 million is being spent internationally; in the U.K. alone, an outdoor digital installation at a landmark can cost $2 million (in the U.S., the campaign kicked off with an installation at the Sphere in Las Vegas).

From Amazon’s point of view, it’s making good on its promise to become a major theatrical player and help struggling cinemas with a varied slate of product, alongside servicing its streaming customers. Since it is a doc, Melania may only play exclusively in cinemas for two weekends (or at least 10 days), meaning a potential streaming launch timed to the Valentine’s Day/President’s Day weekend. While Amazon is more inoculated from churn than rival streaming services, it still has to attract new subs, along with feeding its conservative-leaning Prime members. And it will get two marketing campaigns for the price of one by going relatively quickly to the home, a popular tactic across all of Hollywood.

As to whether the initial $8 million forecast holds, exhibitors aren’t so bullish, based on sluggish ticket sales. Some think it could do far less. Social media is rife with theater maps showing auditoriums where only a smattering of tickets have been sold (it’s hard to remember a doc that’s been so scrutinized in terms of its opening number).

Melania, meanwhile, clearly appears to benefiting by promotion from the bully pulpit, as President Trump entreats his followers to see the film, while grassroots marketing campaigns from conservative groups are expected to send moviegoers to theaters in red-leaning states.

It won’t be helped by movie critics, however, as early reviews from major media outlets have been scathing. (Many box office pundits say Trump supporters will expect negative reviews from what they consider to the left-leaning media.)

Melania is opening opposite a slew of films, including 20th Century’s Rachel McAdams thriller Send Help, the Sam Raimi-directed title that now looks to open $16 million or $18 million domestically, likewise ahead of expectations after earning a glowing 93 percent critics score on Rotten Tomatoes.

The darkly comic horror-thriller stars McAdams and Dylan O’Brien as coworkers stranded on a desert island, and sports a glowing 93 percent critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes. According to THR‘s review, the R-rated pic “boasts an audacious concept that is superbly realized by Raimi’s filmmaking, which milks every bizarre situation for all it’s worth.”

In a second surprise twist, indie movie Iron Lung from Mark Fischbach of YouTube gaming fame is also tipped to open in that range.