Support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael has stabilised while Sinn Féin has slipped back since last year, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll, the first of the year.
The personal rating of Taoiseach Micheál Martin has recovered after a slump in the wake of Fianna Fáil’s disastrous presidential election campaign last year and he is now once again the most popular party leader.
A majority of all voters who express an opinion say Martin should step down as leader of his party – but he enjoys the overwhelming backing of Fianna Fáil voters by a margin of more than four to one.
There are gains for the Social Democrats, the Greens and Independent Ireland, though all are within the margin of error. Sinn Féin remains the most popular party by a clear margin.
Fianna Fáil support has recovered by two points. But satisfaction with the Government as a whole, having fallen back in the second half of last year, remains at its lowest point for six years.
[ The Irish Times-Ipsos B&A poll: full results in chartsOpens in new window ]
The state of the parties, when undecided voters and those unlikely to vote are excluded, is: Fianna Fáil on 19 per cent (up two), Sinn Féin on 24 per cent (down three) and Fine Gael on 18 per cent (no change).
Among the smaller parties, the Social Democrats are at 7 per cent (up two), Labour is at 4 per cent (down two), the Green Party is at 4 per cent (up one), People Before Profit-Solidarity is on 2 per cent (no change), Aontú is at 3 per cent (no change) and Independent Ireland is on 4 per cent (up two).
Independents/others are at 16 per cent (down one). The comparisons are with the most recent Irish Times/Ipsos poll last October.
Undecided voters – who are excluded from the above figures – are at 27 per cent, an increase of four points since October.
Wednesday’s findings partially reverse the movements in the previous poll, when both Fianna Fáil and Martin suffered big drops in support, while Sinn Féin saw its support jump.
Satisfaction with the Government is down by a point to 30 per cent, continuing a slide in the second half of 2025. This is the lowest level, in terms of the Government satisfaction figure, since just before the 2020 general election, when the Fine Gael-Independent government was in office.
[ The Irish Times view: Fianna Fáil sticks with Micheál Martin – at least for nowOpens in new window ]
But there is better news for the Fianna Fáil leader. After a torrid few months in the wake of Jim Gavin’s disastrous candidacy in the presidential election – which saw unrest among Martin’s own TDs about his leadership – the Taoiseach’s satisfaction has recovered by four points to 37 per cent. It makes him the most popular party leader.
Fine Gael leader Simon Harris sees his rating slip by four points to 31 per cent, while Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald has also slipped by four points to 35 per cent.
The poll included a specific question on the future of Martin. Asked if he should step down or remain as leader of Fianna Fáil, a majority of those who expressed a preference (43 per cent) said he should step down, while 39 per cent said he should remain as leader. People who didn’t know were at 18 per cent.
However, Martin enjoys overwhelming support among Fianna Fáil voters – 79 per cent say he should remain as leader while just 17 per cent want him to step down. A large majority of Fine Gael voters also back him, while Sinn Féin and Independent voters are strongly opposed to him.
The poll was conducted among a representative sample of adults aged 18 years and upwards across 120 sampling points throughout all constituencies.
Unlike most other opinion polls, The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A series is conducted through face-to-face sampling. Personal in-home interviewing took place between January 30th and February 3rd. There were 1,200 interviews conducted and the accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
[ Analysis: Relief for Martin as polls swing backOpens in new window ]