Gold Derby’s Oscar predictions saw a significant shake-up in several categories following Sunday’s Actor Awards. On Wednesday, Weapons star Amy Madigan completed her dramatic ascent and surged to No. 1 in what has been a wide-open Best Supporting Actress race.
The veteran performer has a 42 percent chance to win the Oscar, ahead of One Battle After Another’s Teyana Taylor (the Golden Globe winner) at 34 percent and Sinners’ Wunmi Mosaku (the BAFTA winner) at 22 percent. The Best Supporting Actress lineup also includes Sentimental Value costars Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning.
Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Actor Best Supporting Actress Best Supporting Actor Best Adapted Screenplay Best Original Screenplay Best Casting Best Cinematography Best Costume Design Best Film Editing Best Makeup and Hairstyling Best Production Design Best Score Best Song Best Sound Best Visual Effects Best Animated Feature Best Documentary Feature Best International Film Best Animated Short Best Documentary Short Best Live Action Short
Madigan’s first Oscar nomination was for 1985’s Twice in a Lifetime. If our odds play out and Madigan takes the big prize, the gap between her first bid and first win would be 40 years. That would beat the long-standing gap record for an actress of 32 years set by Geraldine Page, who was first nominated for 1953’s Hondo before eventually triumphing for 1985’s The Trip to Bountiful. In between, Page was recognized six other times: Summer and Smoke (1961), Sweet Bird of Youth (1962), You’re a Big Boy Now (1966), Pete ‘n’ Tillie (1972), Interiors (1978), and The Pope of Greenwich Village (1984).
To win, Madigan would have to overcome the hurdle of being the only nominee from her film. Throughout the history of this specific category, only eight other supporting women have accomplished that feat:
- Mary Astor for The Great Lie (1941)
- Claire Trevor for Key Largo (1948)
- Margaret Rutherford for The V.I.P.s (1963)
- Goldie Hawn for Cactus Flower (1969)
- Linda Hunt for The Year of Living Dangerously (1983)
- Marisa Tomei for My Cousin Vinny (1992)
- Angelina Jolie for Girl, Interrupted (1999)
- Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008)
The belief is that if a film or performer doesn’t have broad support within multiple branches of the Academy, the respective nominee faces a steeper uphill battle. Since all members are allowed to vote across every category to determine the winners, a movie with only a single nomination may struggle to capture their attention versus those with lots of bids. In comparison, Mosaku’s film has a record 16 total nominations, Taylor’s has 13, and Lilleaas and Fanning’s has nine.
However, that theory discounts Madigan’s overall cultural impact as Aunt Gladys in Weapons, a parasitic witch who survives by feeding off of others. Just look at all of the Halloween costumes and merchandise centered around her spookie-ookie villain.
Madigan has been the secret “weapon” of her horror movie since it was released in August. She won the Critics Choice Award and the Actor Award, proving her dominance with the media and with the industry.
With only about 14 minutes of screen time in Weapons, Madigan would be among the 10 shortest Best Supporting Actress champions ever. Beatrice Straight (Network) and Judi Dench (Shakespeare in Love) claimed victory for the shortest performances ever, both under six minutes.
At 75 years old, Madigan would also be two years shy of setting an age record in Best Supporting Actress. Then-77-year-old Peggy Ashcroft (A Passage to India) has held that record since the 1985 Oscars.
Find out who wins when the 2026 Oscars take place March 15 on ABC.