Benetton did Leinster a big favour.
Getting beaten in Italy has allowed Leo Cullen to put on his grumpy hat and wear it all week, making it clear to his staff and players that anything other than a total mental and physical domination of Toulon will fail.
Without taking anything away from a spirited Benetton performance, it was clear that the minds of the men in blue were not laser focused on their Italian opponents but instead on the upcoming meeting with an unpredictable Toulon.
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Players are human and with the enormity of a Champions Cup semi-final on the horizon, the Leinster players were mentally distracted. The defeat also created the worrying statistic that this season in matches in South Africa, Wales, Scotland and Italy, Leinster are 1&6.
Coaches will use a statistic like that to light a fire under their players in the week before a big match.
While Leinster are competing on two fronts, with a real chance of lifting the URC and the Champions Cup trophies, Toulon have had an indifferent season in the Top 14. Currently, they are sitting in eighth position, five points out of the playoff spots. In their final three Top 14 matches, they face the might of Toulouse, Racing 92 and Bordeaux. A daunting end-of-season run.
Toulon’s Gael Drean is tackled by Glasgow’s Rory Darge during the Champions Cup quarter-final. Photograph: Robert Petty/AFP via Getty Images
While nothing is impossible in rugby, it is highly unlikely that Toulon will make the Top 14 semis, so the Champions Cup is a golden opportunity for the Toulonnais. The most telling number for the hopes of the Toulon supporters is the scary 666. I am not sure if that dreaded number is an omen, but it is the number of points Toulon have conceded in the Top 14. Only the bottom three French clubs have a worse defensive record.
Unless Toulon arrive with a mindset that is totally committed to their defence, they will fail.
Toulon have won the Heineken Cup in 2013, 2014 and 2015. The three winning stars embroidered above their lily of the valley emblem tells us that deep inside their club’s DNA they have an understanding of what it takes to win in Europe.
Those wins were back in a period when the club was oozing cash. Their former players list reads like a Who’s Who of global rugby. Superstars like Johnny Wilkinson, Sergio Parisse and Sonny Bill Williams top a long column of impressive big-name imports.
Toulon no longer have the cash of their past, but they have beaten Bath, Gloucester, Glasgow, the Stormers and Munster to reach the semi-finals. That record must be respected.
On this season’s journey, it has been the solid home-grown leadership and hard grinding play of Charles Ollivon, combined with the inspirational talent of Baptiste Serin, that has guided them to the semis.
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With Toulouse surprisingly dumped out of the tournament, Leinster have a golden opportunity to once again claim the Champions Cup and slay their mental dragon. This is the type of scenario that can allow the weak-minded to daydream about the possibilities of winning the final before the semi is safely in the bag.
That is exactly what Toulon are hoping for, which is why Leinster’s failure against Benetton has provided Cullen with the opportunity to spend a considerable part of this week kicking every bum in the club. Players and coaches will have been strongly reminded of the consequences of not being totally mentally present at a match. All week his message would have been simple: Be where your feet are because we have not yet earned the right to play in the final.
Last year, a mentally weak Leinster allowed Northampton into the game. At the Aviva on Saturday, Leinster must not repeat that same mistake.
If the Leinster players are dialled in and committed to imposing their game plan, then they will be hard to beat.
There is one area where Toulon do smell some blood in the water – Leinster’s scrum. If they can dominate the scrum, it may open an unlikely door for Toulon. Under the lunacy of the current scrum laws, being pushed backwards is now regarded as a penalty (although no proper and logical rugby explanation has ever been provided to me as to why this is the case), and Toulon believe this is the area where they have the advantage.
Toulon fullback Melvyn Jaminet scores on a conversion during the Champions Cup quarter-final against Glasgow Warriors. Photograph: Robert Perry/AFP via Getty Images
Toulon will hold the ball at their number eight’s feet and simply push Leinster for a penalty. They will either kick long to maul the lineout or hand the ball to their exceptionally gifted goal-kicking fullback Melvyn Jaminet (presuming he starts on Saturday as the team is yet to be announced), who holds a goal-kicking success rate of 92 per cent at international level.
In attack, Leinster must give Toulon what they do not want. Leinster must produce a creative attack that forces the Toulon defenders to retreat after a set play, making Toulon’s dubious defensive system disorganised on tackles two and three. Leinster’s set play attack has improved over the course of the season and they are producing some very creative plays. They need to continue with that positive attitude before their phase attack runs straight and direct. That means their forwards are going at Toulon straight up the middle to create fast ruck ball. Only then should Leinster attempt to go around them.
It is Leinster’s backline defence from scrums and the structure of their system out wide on the flanks that remains vulnerable. The great unknown is whether Toulon have the skill and talent to exploit this weakness.
Toulon are dangerous because they have nothing to lose. All the pressure and expectation are on the home team. With their history of heartbreak in the Champions Cup, being favourites in a semi-final is another uncomfortable situation for Leinster, so this match may be closer than many are suggesting.
Having the discipline to avoid yellow cards will be essential for both teams. Being a man down for 10 minutes may be enough to tip the scales. Leinster have shown they can be ruthless in getting points once they enter their opponents’ 22. They must repeat that accuracy, keep the scoreboard ticking over and hear the voices of their supporters in the game. If Leinster can master their minds and, with their loyal Aviva crowd in full song, they should have enough to book their flight to Bilbao.