As Richie Murphy was quick to observe, having two provinces in the respective European finals ensures “a big, big weekend for Irish rugby” in Bilbao on May 22nd/23rd. But recent history and expectations ensure Ulster and Leinster head to the Basque Country in sharply contrasting fashion.

Ulster will face Montpellier in the Challenge Cup final on the Friday night before Leinster meet the holders Bordeaux Bègles the following day, and as Murphy also told Premier Sports in the aftermath of Ulster’s 29-12 semi-final win over Exeter: “To be in a final is amazing, but everyone who goes to a final, it only really counts if you win.”

And don’t Leinster know it better than any team in Europe? They have been to a record eight Champions Cup finals, winning four and losing four. This will be their fifth final since earning the last of their four stars in Bilbao in 2018. They also won a Challenge Cup in 2014, when becoming the only Irish side to win that trophy in their sole segue into that competition. But that barely merits a footnote in their history.

Leinster out to heal Champions Cup trauma; and is Aviva Stadium fatigue creeping in?

Ulster have had the longest trophy drought of the Irish provinces, dating back 20 seasons to the last day, last-minute drop goal by David Humphreys that earned a 19-17 win away to the Ospreys and sealed the Celtic League by one point from Leinster.

Ulster have been to three finals since – in the 2012 Champions Cup, the Pro12 in 2013 and the Pro14 in 2020 – and lost all of them to Leinster. That 2012 triumph in Twickenham, when defending their title by beating Ulster 42-14, was perhaps peak Leinster, with Brian O’Driscoll, Johnny Sexton, Sean O’Brien, Isa Nacewa and co all in their pomp.

It’s amazing to think that they’ve only added one more Champions Cup in the ensuing 13 campaigns, and since the 2018 victory over Racing in Bilbao, winning a fifth has become a magnificent obsession. Perhaps too much so.

After Saturday’s 29-25 win over Toulon, Leo Cullen wondered aloud if his players were playing with too much tension and not enough freedom. He was also right to declare that reaching a final should not be regarded as a failure.

Leinster head coach Leo Cullen has wondered aloud if his players were playing with too much tension and not enough freedom. Photograph: InphoLeinster head coach Leo Cullen has wondered aloud if his players were playing with too much tension and not enough freedom. Photograph: Inpho

Yet one ventures that many of his players probably felt otherwise after the final defeats in 2019, 2022, 2023 and 2024, and those defeats were compounded by last season’s semi-final loss at home to Northampton.

There was also some semblance of justification behind his broadside at the media, albeit using the words “you guys live to put the boot into us” three times was too generalised and perhaps conflated the media with social media.

That wouldn’t be a first, but it’s not unreasonable to suggest Leinster have not been given the credit they deserve for continually rebounding from acute disappointments to reach finals. But some no doubt revel in their near misses. That’s sport. That’s life.

Even so, it was revealing that the basic premise for his annoyance was the lack of reporting on Henry Pollock going off his feet under the Leinster posts in the endgame to last season’s semi-final.

All of this came in Cullen’s first answer at the general post-match press conference. Along with involuntarily bringing up that semi-final twice on Friday, it hinted at the trauma which that defeat provoked inside Leinster.

Jubilant Leinster fans after the Champions Cup match between Leinster and Toulon at Aviva Stadium on Saturday. Photograph: Getty ImagesJubilant Leinster fans after the Champions Cup match between Leinster and Toulon at Aviva Stadium on Saturday. Photograph: Getty Images

But the causes of that loss went much deeper than one non-penalty and Leinster could arguably have more genuine gripes about Matthew Carley’s refereeing of the 2024 final against Toulouse. Privately, Cullen and Jacques Nienaber must question their selection for last year’s semi-final and their team’s emotional energy levels and preparedness for Northampton’s attacking threats. Certainly, the media were entitled to do so.

Hopefully, they’ve now exorcised one or two demons in winning a home semi-final. But Leinster are an even more curious team this season and it’s somehow entirely fitting that their high-wire defensive system contributed to Toulon taking last Saturday’s semi-final down to the wire.

Had it not been for the covering of Joe McCarthy (who did the same to prevent Italy beating Ireland in Rome last season) and scrambling of Reiko Ioane in the 78th minute, Leinster’s HPC in UCD this week would have been unimaginable. It should never have come to that.

Leinster were the better team for the first 33 minutes of the first half and the first 28 of the second. Much of their all-round attacking game was excellent and ditto their blitz defence. After Toulon mauled a lineout in the 50th minute, the unrelenting line speed and tackling efficiency of the blue wave for four phases culminated in Tomas Albornoz having to kick downfield, from inside his own 10m line – more than 20m back from where they started.

Leinster's Reiko Ione is tackled by Juan Brex of Toulon during the Champions Cup match at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday. Photograph: Getty ImagesLeinster’s Reiko Ione is tackled by Juan Brex of Toulon during the Champions Cup match at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday. Photograph: Getty Images

Yet in the 34th minute, with Leinster 14-6 ahead, McCarthy, Jamie Osborne, Garry Ringrose and Tommy O’Brien blitzed so ferociously that Albornoz stepped inside the lock to take all of them out of the game. This led to the quick-fire yellow cards for Andrew Porter and Harry Byrne, and the try by Setariki Tuicuvu.

Compounded by going through 20 phases at the start of the second period with 13 against 15, maybe the demands of this defensive system also took its toll. But when Toulon suddenly made it a four-point game and were running the ball from their own 22 in the 78th minute, Leinster’s outside-in blitz opened the door for Melvyn Jaminet to release Gaël Drean, before McCarthy and Ioane closed it again.

Leinster are certainly committed to this thing. Seemingly, it’s all-in all the time. They’re a little like a gambler late at night with a pot of house money on the table in front of him, but who still wants to empty the contents of his wallet in one last play.

But in certain circumstances, maybe play the percentages? Maybe keep 15 men in front of the opposition and fill the pitch?

This is a good Leinster team. True, they’ve had a favourable draw, but to reach a Champions Cup final, they have to be, and they have some brilliant players. But just how good remains to be seen in three weeks’ time. And, knowing them, the verdict will come down to the last play.

gerry.thornley@irishtimes.com