Any analysis of Catherine Connolly’s successful presidential campaign should begin and end with Galway. She launched her campaign there, and it was in Galway city that the parties of the left came together to hold a totemic rally on the eve of polling day.
The question is whether this was a flash in the pan or the beginning of a new momentum for the left in Irish politics.
Soon after Connolly’s election to the Áras, a new grouping was formed in Galway West called Tonn na Clé. Its message was simple: vote left, stay left.
It was always going to be more complicated in practice. Each of the main left parties is expected to run its own candidate in the upcoming byelection to fill the President’s former Dáil seat. There is also a continuity candidate from Connolly’s independent camp in the shape of Sheila Garrity.
The most obvious contender is Mark Lohan of Sinn Féin. His colleague, Mairéad Farrell, topped the poll in the 2024 general election and Lohan would still be seen as the front-runner on the left. There is also talk around Helen Ogbu of Labour and Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich from the Social Democrats, who has never stood for election before.
Labour Party candidate Helen Ogbu canvassing in Galway ahead of the 2024 general election. File photograph: Joe O’Shaughnessy
On a sun-drenched afternoon in Galway, a team of Social Democrats canvassers move door to door through the Claddagh, a neighbourhood near the city centre where Connolly used to live. Party leader Holly Cairns and Senator Patricia Stephenson are here to offer support to Nic Fhionnlaoich.
Cairns tells the group that support for Nic Fhionnlaoich is growing. “It has grown from ‘maybe she has an outside chance’, to ‘she is in the mix’, to ‘the campaign is really building behind her’,” she says.
“Galway West is wide open and it is within reach.”
The Claddagh would be considered a happy hunting ground for a left-of-centre party. With a lot of people out at work, not too many doors are answered. Nic Fhionnlaoich, a native speaker from Ard Mór in Connemara, has a good conversation in Irish with a student. Elsewhere, she gets a commitment of a preference. One couple at a doorstep talk about the lack of bicycle lanes.
Nic Fhionnlaoich believes she has traction despite never standing for election before. “I was a bit of an unknown, but no stranger to campaigning,” she says. “So far, it’s been phenomenal. How quickly people hear about you, hear you on the radio and speak to you on the doors.”
Like practically all other candidates, she says the big issues are the cost of living, transport, health and housing.
“My big message is that, yes, these are real problems, but there are solutions. People feel disillusioned, but if nothing can get better I would not be running in Galway West. It’s not blind hope. We have to demand better for our communities.”
Over on the east of the city, in Wellpark, Ogbu gets more engagement on the doorstep. A lot of people raise the issue of the new bicycle lanes being constructed nearby, but not positively. “We all want cycle lanes,” says one man, “but it doesn’t have to be eight-foot wide.”
A young student talks about the lack of accommodation for young people in general. Another young man, a bar manager, says the cost of living has made it impossible to pay bills.
There is some evidence that antipathy towards politicians – and politics in general – is growing. A man from nearby Mervue has been out for a run and shrugs when asked about the byelections.
“There is no money going into the working man’s pocket,” he says. “Simple as that. We are keeping everybody else in their homes and on the dole and they are still shelling out money to them and giving nothing to us.
Social Democrats candidate for Galway West, Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (second from right), along with party leader Holly Cairns (right), with Kathy and Mick Dunne while canvassing in Claddagh, Galway. Photograph: Joe O’Shaughnessy
“Politics? Not a notion. It’s the same old ding-dong year after year. I’m 61 now. There has not been any change for 20 or 30 years.”
His is not an isolated view.
Ogbu is a friendly and engaging candidate and believes she can emerge from the pack. “I’m in it to win it,” says the Labour candidate. “I wouldn’t be running if I’m not in it. This is traditionally a Labour seat – Michael D Higgins and Catherine Connolly.
“I’m very confident. People have been very responsive.” She smiles while adding: “Helen will be the fifth TD for Galway West come May 22nd.”
Independent Ireland candidate Noel Thomas has been described as the candidate to beat since February. He finished sixth in the 2024 general election and was associated with the fuel protests last month.
A former Fianna Fáil councillor, Thomas’s association with campaigns against immigrant accommodation centres splits opinion. A quintessential rural candidate, it has yet to be seen if he can attract enough support in Galway City to bring him over the line.
Among the Government candidates, Seán Kyne appears to be the strongest, but government candidates rarely win byelections and it is difficult to see him bucking that trend. Galway mayor Mike Cubbard could be a dark horse. He is an independent candidate with a relatively high profile.