Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne holds the slimmest of leads over Independent Ireland rival Noel Thomas in the Galway West byelection campaign, according to an Irish Times/TG4 opinion poll in the constituency.

The poll, carried out by Ipsos B&A, also shows a strong performance by Labour’s Helen Ogbu, who is, at this stage, the leading candidate of a large but scattered left-wing vote.

Neither Fianna Fáil candidate Cillian Keane nor the Sinn Féin candidate, Mark Lohan, is likely to challenge for the seat, with support for each registering in single digits.

The findings of the poll on first preference votes show Kyne at 17 per cent followed by Thomas on 16 per cent and Ogbu on 12 per cent.

They are followed by Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich of the Social Democrats on 9 per cent, Keane on 8 per cent and Independent Mike Cubbard on 7 per cent.

Lohan follows on 7 per cent with Niall Murphy of the Green Party on 6 per cent, Independent Thomas Welby on 6 per cent and Orla Nugent of Aontú on 4 per cent.

At the back of the pack are Independent Sheila Garrity on 3 per cent and People Before Profit-Solidarity’s Denman Rooke on 2 per cent.

The remaining candidates attracted 1 per cent support or less, according to the opinion poll.

As expected, it is clear that transfers will decide the outcome of the election. The poll suggests Kyne has an advantage on that front, with a significant lead over Thomas when voters are asked about their second preferences.

However, with 17 candidates in the field, there are likely to be many counts before the seat is filled.

With a combined 39 per cent of first preference votes, effective transfers between the parties would put whoever emerges as the leading candidate of the left-wing parties – currently Labour’s Ogbu – in a strong position.

The poll suggests Ogbu will also perform strongly on transfers. Her closest rival on the left is likely to be Nic Fhionnlaoich of the Soc Dems.

It is clear there is a strong anti-Government mood on the ground; just 20 per cent of respondents in the poll said they were satisfied with the Government’s handling of the fuel crisis, while two-thirds of voters (67 per cent) said they were dissatisfied.

Candidates’ stance on the fuel protests – with which Thomas was closely associated – will be a significant influence on the election. More than a third of voters (35 per cent) said it would influence their vote a lot, with a further 32 per cent saying it would influence their vote somewhat.

Asked about the most important issue for Galway for them, the top choice among those polled was “roads”, including the plans for a bypass for the city, on 27 per cent, followed by housing (26 per cent), the cost of living (11 per cent) and public transport (8 per cent).

The survey was conducted by telephone among a sample consisting of 530 adults aged 18 upwards in the Galway West constituency on behalf of TG4 and The Irish Times by Ipsos B&A.

Interviews took place between Friday, May 1st, and Tuesday, May 5th. The margin of error is about plus or minus four percentage points.