Canada’s oil sands sector could deliver significant long-term production growth, but industry leaders say future expansion will depend heavily on new pipeline infrastructure to move crude to international markets.

Speaking after stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings, Scott Stauth said Canada’s oil sands require a major new export route to the Pacific Coast if the sector is to grow meaningfully over the next decade. The comments come amid renewed debate over pipeline capacity and energy infrastructure in Canada.

“We need that pipeline to be able to grow oil sands in a significant way,” Stauth said, referring to Alberta’s proposal for a new 1 million-barrel-per-day pipeline to British Columbia’s northwest coast.

Canadian Natural Resources reported total production of 1.64 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the first quarter, up from 1.58 million boepd a year earlier. Output from its Jackfish thermal oil sands project reached a record 134,396 barrels per day, exceeding maximum nameplate capacity. The company said April production from all oil sands assets climbed to roughly 630,000 barrels per day.

Despite strong operating performance, Stauth cautioned that larger expansion plans remain constrained by export bottlenecks. Canadian Natural’s proposed 150,000 bpd expansion at its Jackpine oil sands project remains on hold pending greater confidence in future pipeline capacity.

Pipeline proposals are now multiplying across North America. South Bow and Bridger Pipeline recently proposed reviving parts of the cancelled Keystone XL route to add 550,000 bpd of export capacity to the United States, while expansion projects are also being discussed for the Trans Mountain Pipeline and Enbridge Mainline system.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has previously tied support for a new West Coast pipeline to the construction of a large-scale carbon capture and storage network aimed at lowering oil sands emissions.

Canadian Natural posted adjusted first-quarter earnings of C$1.17 per share, comfortably above analyst expectations of C$1.01 per share.