Enrolments in primary schools are projected to decline significantly over the coming decade while first-year student numbers in second level have already begun to fall, the Department of Education has said.
However, in a briefing paper for an Oireachtas committee last month the department maintained there could be “significant local and regional variations”.
“For example, new residential developments, such as in counties around Dublin, can drive a level of demand for school places that runs significantly higher than overall national trends,” it said.
The department indicated that spare capacity at primary and second level was being targeted at special education where demand is growing significantly.
“At primary level nationally, enrolments are projected to decline significantly over the coming decade. This will vary at local level and some areas where there is very substantial housing development will experience growth. In many areas, however, schools will experience drops in enrolment and this has already had an impact on some locations. It is important that this existing and oncoming capacity is utilised appropriately to meet school place needs across the relevant area”, the department told the Dáil Public Accounts Committee.
It said at post-primary level, national enrolments are expected to begin to decline from 2026, although first-year enrolments have already been reducing in recent years.
“School capacity at post-primary level is more complex, given subject choices and timetabling options; however, good management can achieve high efficiency in the use of school accommodation. Given the increasing requirements for special-education provision, it is important that all schools make best use of available accommodation, and the department is working closely with schools, patrons and management bodies to support this.”
It said the special-education needs repurposing scheme had been successful in ensuring that spare capacity at primary and post-primary schools was maximised, “with 80 per cent of new special classes for 2025/26 being established in repurposed classroom accommodation”.
The department maintained that school place pressures were “not typically driven by lack of capacity in an area”.
It said at post-primary level (where there was most demographic pressure) “there were unfilled first-year places in every county and in 83 per cent of the 314 school planning areas in the 2024/25 academic year”.
“For example, across County Dublin, 38 of the 40 school planning areas had unfilled first year places. In County Kildare, the only school planning area without remaining first year places for 2024/25 were Kilcullen and Monasterevin, both of which draw students from outside their local area”.
“School place pressures are most typically driven by school- of-choice factors, which can include a draw of students from outside the local area”.
Meanwhile, a Fine Gael senator has called for a teacher relocation scheme to help retention issues.
Senator Gareth Scahill maintained inaction could risk deepening pressures felt by teachers across the education system.
“There isn’t a clear and workable voluntary relocation pathway for post-primary teachers. It means many teachers feel locked in place, unable to move closer to home due to inflexible administrative arrangements.
“Teachers want to see fair and transparent mobility options. A solution to that could be a national database which allows teachers to log where they would like to go, allowing the Department of Education to assess if the move is feasible,” he said.