• Hoegh-Guldberg, O. & Bruno, J. F. The impact of climate change on the world’s marine ecosystems. Science 328, 1523–1528 (2010).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Jackson, A. & McIlvenny, J. Coastal squeeze on rocky shores in northern Scotland and some possible ecological impacts. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 400, 314–321 (2011).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Rilov, G. et al. Sea level rise can severely reduce biodiversity and community net production on rocky shores. Sci. Total Environ. 791, 148377 (2021).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Kirwan, M. L. & Megonigal, J. P. Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise. Nature 504, 53–60 (2013).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Nicholls, R. J. & Cazenave, A. Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones. Science 328, 1517–1520 (2010).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Vinogradov, S. V., Ponte, R. M., Heimbach, P. & Wunsch, C. The mean seasonal cycle in sea level estimated from a data-constrained general circulation model. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 113, C03032 (2008).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Ray, R. D., Loomis, B. D. & Zlotnicki, V. The mean seasonal cycle in relative sea level from satellite altimetry and gravimetry. J. Geod. 95, 80 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Widlansky, M. J., Long, X. & Schloesser, F. Increase in sea level variability with ocean warming associated with the nonlinear thermal expansion of seawater. Commun. Earth Environ. 1, 9 (2020).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Hermans, T. H. J., Busecke, J. J. M. & van de Wal, R. S. W. Future changes in the annual sea-level cycle. Earth’s Future 14, e2025EF006735 (2026).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Balke, T., Stock, M., Jensen, K., Bouma, T. J. & Kleyer, M. A global analysis of the seaward salt marsh extent: the importance of tidal range. Water Resour. Res. 52, 3775–3786 (2016).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Connell, J. H. The influence of interspecific competition and other factors on the distribution of the barnacle Chthamalus stellatus. Ecology 42, 710–723 (1961).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Kaplanis, N. J., Denny, M. W. & Raimondi, P. T. Vertical distribution of rocky intertidal organisms shifts with sea-level variability on the Northeast Pacific Coast. Global Change Biol. 30, e17527 (2024).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • García Molinos, J. et al. Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 83–88 (2016).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Borchert, S. M., Osland, M. J., Enwright, N. M. & Griffith, K. T. Coastal wetland adaptation to sea level rise: quantifying potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze. J. Appl. Ecol. 55, 2876–2887 (2018).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Doody, J. P. Coastal squeeze and managed realignment in southeast England, does it tell us anything about the future?. Ocean Coastal Manag. 79, 34–41 (2013).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Pontee, N. Defining coastal squeeze: a discussion. Ocean Coastal Manag. 84, 204–207 (2013).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Meinshausen, M. et al. The Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500. Geosci. Model Dev. 13, 3571–3605 (2020).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Belliard, J., Gourgue, O., Govers, G., Kirwan, M. L. & Temmerman, S. Coastal wetland adaptability to sea level rise: the neglected role of semi-diurnal vs. diurnal tides. Limnol. Oceanogr. Lett. 8, 340–349 (2023).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Kirwan, M. L. et al. Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L23401 (2010).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Peterson, E. A. et al. Determining physiological responses of mussels (Mytilus edulis) to hypoxia by combining multiple sensor techniques. Conserv. Physiol. 13, coaf023 (2025).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Babarro, J. M. F., Labarta, U. & Reiriz, M. J. F. Energy metabolism and performance of Mytilus galloprovincialis under anaerobiosis. J. Mar. Biol. Assoc. UK 87, 941–946 (2007).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Wethey, D. S. et al. Response of intertidal populations to climate: effects of extreme events versus long term change. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 400, 132–144 (2011).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Pendleton, R. M., Hoeinghaus, D. J., Gomes, L. C. & Agostinho, A. A. Trophic downgrading results in complex ecosystem dynamics in experimental tropical floodplain food webs. Hydrobiologia 760, 15–28 (2015).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Strain, E. M. et al. The role of changing climate in driving the shift from perennial grasses to annual succulents in a Mediterranean saltmarsh. J. Ecol. 105, 1374–1385 (2017).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Estes, J. A. et al. Trophic downgrading of planet Earth. Science 333, 301–306 (2011).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Hart-Davis, M. G. et al. EOT20: a global ocean tide model from multi-mission satellite altimetry. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 13, 3869–3884 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Piccioni, G., Dettmering, D., Bosch, W. & Seitz, F. TICON: TIdal CONstants based on GESLA sea-level records from globally located tide gauges. Geosci. Data J. 6, 97–104 (2019).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Hasselmann, K. Stochastic climate models part I. Theory. tellus 28, 473–485 (1976).


    Google Scholar
     

  • Uhlenbeck, G. E. & Ornstein, L. S. On the theory of the Brownian motion. Phys. Rev. 36, 823 (1930).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Gardiner, C. W. Stochastic Methods: A Handbook for the Natural and Social Sciences (Springer, 2009).

  • Hermans, T. Annual sea-level cycle changes based on CMIP6 simulations (v1.0). Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17223309 (2025).

  • Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937–1958 (2016).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Fivash, G. S. & Hermans, T. H. J. Timh37/aslc_intertidal: analysis of intertidal exposure due to the ASLC (v1.1). Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18731490 (2026).