As the byelection campaign enters the final week, Thursday’s Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A poll suggests that multiple candidates are in contention for the seat formerly held by Paschal Donohoe in Dublin Central.

The two front-runners at this point are: Janice Boylan (Sinn Féin), who currently attracts 21 per cent of the first preference votes, and Daniel Ennis (Social Democrats) on 18 per cent. Their nearest rivals are: Gerry Hutch (Independent) on 14 per cent and Ray McAdam (Fine Gael) on 13 per cent. With only eight points separating first and fourth in this poll, and a margin of error of about plus or minus four points, the race to become Dublin Central’s next TD remains wide open.

Fieldwork for this poll was undertaken between May 7th and 12th. A total of 659 interviews were conducted face-to-face in-home across 30 sampling points throughout the constituency.

A total of 14 candidates are seeking election when voters go to the polls next Friday.

Boylan at present leads the field with 21 per cent support. This is close to the 23 per cent vote share that Sinn Féin achieved in Dublin Central in the 2024 general election when party leader Mary Lou McDonald topped the poll and was the first candidate elected. Boylan was her running mate on that occasion, attracting 4 per cent of first preference votes.

Ennis is on 18 per cent, outperforming what his party, the Social Democrats, achieved in this constituency in the most recent general election when Gary Gannon was elected, having secured 13 per cent of first preference votes.

Boylan’s advantage over Ennis comes from wider appeal across age groups. While both candidates are equally popular among voters aged between 25 and 64, Boylan has a 10-point lead both among voters aged under 25 and those aged 65 and older. She may well benefit from the increased likelihood of older voters turning out on election day.

The entry of Hutch into the byelection has drawn a lot of attention, and he is off to an encouraging start on 14 per cent. This is well ahead of the 9 per cent he achieved in the 2024 general election when he narrowly missed out on winning a seat.

Hutch polls very strongly in the inner-city part of the constituency, where his 21 per cent support puts him almost level with Boylan who is on 22 per cent in the same area. However, with only 8 per cent in other parts of the constituency, he will need to mobilise this concentrated localised support if he is to be elected. This poses a significant challenge as turnout in inner-city areas is traditionally lower than in more affluent parts of the constituency.

McAdam will need to increase his first preference vote share beyond 13 per cent if he is to retain the seat held by his party, Fine Gael. However, he will take encouragement that he is the preferred candidate among the crucial over-65 voter group at 26 per cent.

Behind the leading quartet, there is a closely bunched group of three candidates. Janet Horner (Green Party) is on 8 per cent – an increase on the 6 per cent secured by the party in this constituency in the last general election. Malachy Steenson (Independent) is also up by two points to 7 per cent since the previous election. Ruth O’Dea (Labour) is on 6 per cent, slightly behind the 8 per cent first preference share secured by her party colleague, Marie Sherlock, when Sherlock was elected here in 2024.

John Stephens (Fianna Fáil) is on 4 per cent; the days of the party winning more than 40 per cent of the vote in Dublin Central and electing two TDs now feel like a distant memory. Stephens’s 11 per cent share among the over-65 age group is the only silver lining.

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin (People Before Profit–Solidarity) is on 3 per cent, and the remaining five candidates each poll at around 1 per cent.

It’s highly probable that this race will come down to transfers; and with this in mind voters in Thursday’s opinion poll were asked to indicate their likely second preference vote.

While there are limits on how much a poll can predict transfer patterns with meaningful accuracy, they are a useful indicator of voter sentiment in terms of transfer patterns.

Among the two front-runners, Ennis on 15 per cent is more transfer-friendly than Boylan on 10 per cent. Horner is also likely to benefit as the count progresses, securing 14 per cent of transfers, while Steenson is on 10 per cent. However, popularity on transfers is futile without a sufficient foundation of first preference votes to get into the business end of the race.

With a week to go until polling day, the race now enters a crucial stage. Many candidates will find encouragement in these results and will redouble their efforts for one final push. Previous polling shows that many voters only make up their minds during the final days. This will focus the minds of canvassing teams as they step up their activity on the streets of Dublin seeking to create the momentum that carries their candidate over the line.

Kieran O’Leary is a director at Ipsos B&A