The majority of voters in Northern Ireland, including among those who voted to leave the EU, agree Brexit has been more of a failure than a success, according to new research from Queen’s University Belfast.

Ten years on from the referendum, the university found 72 per cent of Northern voters agreed with the statement, and 60 per cent among those who voted to leave.

The study, published on Friday, also found two-thirds of voters – 66 per cent – believed Brexit had made the break-up of the UK more likely.

It showed a “strong” preference for closer ties with the EU; 59 per cent of voters opposed further loosening of UK-EU ties and 57 per cent supported the UK rejoining.

The research was carried out for Queen’s by Belfast-based polling company LucidTalk. It is the 15th report in the university’s Testing the Temperature series, led by professors David Phinnemore and Katy Hayward, surveying the views of the North’s voters on Brexit, the Northern Ireland Protocol and the Windsor Framework.

It was conducted between April 17th and 20th this year using a weighted sample of 1,050 respondents from across Northern Ireland.

In the Brexit referendum, held on June 23rd, 2016, Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU by 56 per cent to 44 per cent, but the UK as a whole voted narrowly to leave, by 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

The research indicated voters “remain divided” over the legitimacy of the Brexit vote, with 40 per cent agreeing it was based on a fair democratic process and 48 per cent disagreeing.

It also found the Brexit-related identities of “leaver” or “remainer” continued to be “very important” to a majority – 52 per cent – of voters, and this was particularly the case among leavers and older voters.

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Hayward said the importance of identity to one in two voters constituted an “additional layer of division broadly on top of existing ones”.

She said the dominant theme in comments from those surveyed was “Brexit is a failure” and this was for two distinct reasons.

“Remainers say it’s a failure because it was an act of national self-harm and they didn’t want it anyway, and for leavers it’s a failure because Northern Ireland never got Brexit,” she explained.

“One person said, ‘I voted leave to get rid of European laws and that’s about all that they kept’. So there’s a sense that it wasn’t fully achieved in Northern Ireland.

“That’s why I think you see that sense that it’s been more a failure in Northern Ireland, and particularly that view among leavers, that’s about 10 percentage points higher than the figure in [Great Britain].”

The study also found that while most Northern voters remained “broadly accepting” of the Windsor Framework – Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trading arrangements – support was “weakening” amid “declining public understanding”.

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A total of 58 per cent said they had a “good understanding” of the framework – the lowest level since polling began. Forty-six per cent now regarded it as “on balance a good thing for Northern Ireland” – the lowest level since June 2021 – and 46 per cent view it as an appropriate means of addressing Brexit in Northern Ireland, down from 61 per cent in summer 2024.

“With the UK and EU negotiating new agreements that are expected to reduce trade frictions arising from the Windsor Framework, it will be important that the new arrangements are clearly and reliably explained,” Phinnemore said.

“If they are not, then this will only further damage trust levels in the UK government and the EU.”