UK prime minister Keir Starmer’s fate could become clearer after June 18th when the byelection targeted by his leadership rival Andy Burnham is expected to take place.
Burnham got approval on Friday from the Labour Party’s ruling national executive committee (NEC) to put his name forward to contest the vote in Makerfield, just south of Wigan. Burnham needed NEC approval under Labour’s rules as he is the sitting mayor of Greater Manchester, which he has run since 2017. He was previously an MP for 16 years.
The committee, which includes many Starmer loyalists, had blocked Burnham from another byelection held in February, but the UK prime minister indicated he would not seek to prevent Burnham from running this time.
With the party destabilised by leadership speculation after close to 100 Labour MPs called on Starmer to quit, it has announced an accelerated process to pick a candidate.
The byelection is being called to fill the seat left vacant after the local MP Josh Simons stepped aside on Thursday to let Burnham run, which would allow him to challenge Starmer for the leadership of the party and, with it, role of UK prime minister.
The next step is that the local party branch will select a candidate. Nominations are open for three days, after which hustings will be held. Labour is expected to settle on its candidate by next Thursday, May 21st.
UK prime minister Keir Starmer (centre) and mayor of London Sadiq Khan speak with Metropolitan Police commander Clair Haynes during a visit to a police station in Lambeth, south London, on Friday. Photograph: Peter Nicholls/PA Wire
It is expected that Burnham, who polling shows is by far the most popular Labour politician in Britain, will be chosen to run. Even Wes Streeting, a potential leadership rival for both Burnham and Starmer who quit on Thursday as health secretary, has called on the Greater Manchester mayor to be allowed take part.
“We need our best players on the pitch. There is no doubt that Andy Burnham is one of them. The Makerfield byelection will be tough … Andy has the best chance of winning,” said Streeting.
After that, Labour must move a writ in the House of Commons for the byelection to happen. Under the accelerated timetable, it is believed June 18th is the likely date for the vote. Counting would happen quickly, with the result due early on June 19th.
Burnham will face a serious challenge from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK for the seat.
[ Andy Burnham: the political chameleon making a bid for Labour’s top jobOpens in new window ]
Farage has already promised to “throw everything” at the contest. Simons had a majority in Makerfield of about 5,500 from the 2024 election, but Reform has since surged in the polls and emerged as a national force in UK politics.
Farage’s party won 22 out of 23 Wigan borough seats in local elections held last week, part of a slate of local votes in England and parliamentary votes in Scotland and Wales which brought disastrous results for Labour and sparked the leadership crisis. Reform also won every single ward in the Makerfield area, underlining the challenge ahead for Burnham.
Reform is also running a quick selection process. Matt Goodwin, a GB News presenter who came second for Farage’s party in February’s Gorton & Denton byelection from which Burnham was barred by Labour’s NEC, has already ruled himself out of the Makerfield race. Reform is said to be considering a local candidate.
If Burnham can win in Makerfield, he would be expected to quickly launch a leadership challenge to Starmer and would be the likely favourite in any race.
Starmer is automatically entitled to run although he may also choose to step down.
Labour is keen to have a swift contest to limit bond market instability, with investors worried about a potential picot in fiscal policy with any leadership change.